Demonetization Impact - How it is enabling the users?

I could not stop myself from writing this; hence, here is the post. This is important because of its relations to demonetization.

For any dairy shop (who delivers milk to all households plus over the counter sales), the most important customers are those whom they deliver pre determined milk at customers' houses. They are bulk customers and they also order other essentials like bread, ghee, paneer, curd, sweets, cold drinks etc but it happens seldom. However the payments come in a lag of 1 month. These book sales are over and above the counter sales where customers buy dairy items as per daily needs.
After demonetization, I advised my dairy person to go digital, either go for paytm or swipe machines. Also I made him understand how his sales would increase and how customers would also be happy as they get debit/credit card loyalty points which are encashable.
Today when I went to pay the last month bill, I carried a cheque with myself and was pre-determined that I won't pay cash. I asked him how he will take the payment and asked if he would prefer taking a cheque which he agreed. It was a surprise for me as he got opened a new current account in next door bank, #corporationbank. When he said that he got a swipe machine too, I was thrilled. He got the mini swipe machine (GPRS enabled POS without print options, size of man's purse) by #corporationbank . I asked in detail about the cost and he said the bank would charge of Rs 600-700 per month with a facility of minimum Rs 100 transaction.
Then definitely my next question was, "did sales increase". His answer was a big "YES". It went up by 15-20% within a week. Now understand how it increased. We all agree that to a certain extent we have become tech savvy and prefer to pay through card. All his customers started ordering his other items like bread, curd, cold drinks, ghee and other dairy items over the phone, mind it earlier the same customers including me used to buy from their respective nearby shops and used to pay in cash. Overall the average monthly bill of all "over the home" customers will increase. Banking transactions will go up.

Now why I am writing this post? Many of my friends and known accomplices have been complaining tooth and nail about the difficulties Indians are facing even if he/she are not facing any problem post demonetization. Yes the govt should have been better prepared but don't forget it's a bold step which will have positive impact in longer term. And there would be lakhs of similar story throughout India, crores of additional banking transactions and lakhs of additional income tax payees which will enable the government to reduce the tax rates in future.

I am happy to see these changes in my lifetime and am contributing in whatever way I could by giving the right advise and enablers. Let us all come together and build a new nation.

#digitalpayment #demonetization #deshbadalrahahai #yourcontribution

Race to the bottom – logical but funny reason for negative interest rates

Since the crash of commodity prices specially crude oil which has contaminated other commodity assets with downward spiral, the whole world is staring at 2008 repeat; at least they are talking about the letter, ‘R’ i.e. Recession. This may be far from true but few nations like Japan and much of Europe who are experiencing low inflation and weak growth, there is a “race to the bottom” in which their respective central banks vie to reduce interest rates further into negative territory.

The reasons might be very logical but the most binding is that there will come a point at which it makes sense to transfer bank deposits into cash, as the rate of negative interest outweighs the cost and inconvenience of holding and transacting into bank notes. 

And here comes the funny part which holds true logically. The storage cost for gold is 0.2% or so of its value per annum; however, the cost of securely storing and moving large piles of cash is likely to be higher than of gold, because in most currencies, the value of banknotes storable in a given space is much lower. Capital Economics guesses that this cost could be around 1.5-2%, implying a lower bound on deposit rates as low as -2%. In practice, the lower bound is likely to vary between countries. The table depicts the picture clearly. 

Whatever be the consumers’ move, the government’s intention is to make people spend and let the economy grow.

Happy Investing :-)

Life from Running to Stairs

Stairsmaster, Stairman, OMG…these are the few names which I have been given to me in the last few months after people saw a transformation in my body. And it is quite obvious because now I am a completely changed person internally and externally, thanks to my training which included running, stairs climbing, Abs, SuryaNamaskars and Kick Boxing. I don’t know how I got addicted to these but these are entirely my inclusions.

So, how I started? I have been running for a long time but with no focus on timing; however, I always thought improving my timing. In one of the many articles, I read stairs climbing as one of the core training of all successful runners. Meanwhile, Sharad, an IT entrepreneur and my running fellow did few sessions of stairs in his building which inspired me to do stairs in my building but I found it boring, may be due to non-circulation of air and closed four walls. Parsik Hill was one place where I remembered one small patch of stairs (110 stairs oneway). Next day, I ran to Parsik Hill (PH) and did 1,100 stairs (5 times of stairs run cum jog, 220 stairs up and down). It was an amazing experience for me though I was tired too. In my next run to PH, I did 7 times of repetitions completing 1,500 stairs which went to 3,300 stairs in next two sessions. Meanwhile I realized that I started feeling light due to stairs and my calves were becoming stronger. This made me to include stairs as my permanent training plan. So, instead of mixing running with stairs, I focused on doing stairs only. I landed on PH with my loads of carbohydrates, water  and other stuffs and did my first dedicated stairs jog and ended up doing 5,500 stairs in 1:10 hrs. My other core plans like SuryaNamaskars, Abs, Plank etc were on. I increased my stairs count from 5,500 to 8,000 to 11,111 and then 15,555 stairs in a span of one month. Yes, initially I felt tired but later on, it was perfectly fine except on the day when I did 15,555 stairs, my feets were paining. On an average, I did 5,500 stairs an hour.

These trainings helped me a lot; first, it gave me a discipline and direction how to target and achieve it and at the same time, it made my body strong, rather I would say super strong. I accomplished my sub 2 target of completing ADHM 2014 in 1:53 hrs followed by Emidar Navi Marathon Half Marathon in 1:50 hrs. Because of these trainings which included stairs, I finished Bangalore Ultra (50 km) in a reasonable time (5:40 mins). Believe me, I never ran beyond 21 km but I ended up doing 50 km without any hassles. Yes the last 10 km was tough but I managed to finish strongly. Recently I participated in Stairs Everest Challenge organized by Skyscraper Dash where we had to run 43 times up and 42 times down of Kohinoor Square (52 floors), Dadar equivalent to 106,500 stairs in a team of 6. We ended up doing 109,000 stairs where I contributed 18,750 stairs and rest by my team members. We took an average time of 3:00 hours and beat Bangalore record by a cool 13 mins.

I read a lot of articles on stairs and kick boxing and read few histories of some of the great runners of the world. Two things were common in all – Stairs running/Hill running and Boxing/Kick Boxing which are part of my training plans currently.

I strongly recommend all runners to include stairs, abs and other core exercises in their training plans which will definitely improve their running pace.

My life changed very fast in the last two years, especially in the last one year; everything looked positive to me, personally met so many wonderful and determined people, most of them runners of different ages but in different professions. I am blessed that I am surrounded by positive people, friends and bosses who always supported me in my dreams. God bless everyone!

Happy stepping!

18 Half Marathons, 2 Ultras and 1 Tower Run – The journey is on

“When you make yourself as your role model, nothing is impossible for you, especially when you are putting your efforts 100%.”

It all started with my participation in Dream Run of SCMM 10 and later in SCMM 11. I was amazed to see the whole Mumbai coming on roads and running their respective category runs. Though I was upset that I didn’t go for Half Marathons in these two seasons, I was determined to participate in HMs in future runs. The year went by and as determined, I registered for SCMM Half Marathon 2012 through my then employer. I promised to train myself but it never happened except few (2-3) practice runs of 5-7 kms. I managed a net finish time of 02:50:20 hrs without any preparation. I didn’t know if I should be happy or pat myself on my achievement. The next two days was horrible for me; my calves and legs were paining.  

The next run happened at Airtel Hyderabad Marathon on Aug 26, 2012 with a net finish time near to SCMM Half Marathon 12. Life went on and my passion for running grew stronger. I did few practice runs but not any serious runs. In 2013, I registered for SCMM HM 13, Hiranandani Thane Half Marathon 13, Airtel Hyd Marathon 2013, Vasai-Virar National Mayor’s Marathon 2013, Pune International Marathon 2013 and Zendurance Nashik 2013. With marathon after marathon and few practice runs, I managed to finish 2013 with the best timing of 02:14:42 hrs in Zendurance Nashik 2013. It was a major boost up for me as I managed to improve my timing significantly after 7 HMs and 2 Dream Runs by almost 35 mins.

At the end of 2013, I joined a running group, Navi Mumbai Runners (also known as NMRs) at Navi Mumbai and became an active runner with no proper focus on training. I just kept on running and running. Meanwhile I realized that running changed my life, my thinking and my perspectives towards the world. From an aggressive person, I became a calm person, a good listener and started giving other people their space and time. In nutshell, running became the biggest detoxifier in my life.

The target was set for 2014, nothing less than sub 2 hours for Half Marathon. Though many fellow runners asked me to upgrade to Full Marathon, I never thought to give it a try without achieving my sub 2 hours in Half Marathon.

Year 2014 started with SCMM Half Marathon 2014 on Jan 19, 2014. Though I didn’t have any fixed target, I had a soft target of finishing in 02:10 hours. I started my run with my fellow runner Sweta Jayaram and ran together till 12 km after that she gave up with my pace. I managed to finish the run in 02:11:34 hrs. Though I missed my own target, it was a real booster in my running career. Yes, you heard it right, somehow running became an important career of my life. I can not imagine my life without running. It made me disciplined; it allowed setting my target and achieving it with proper planning and training. I became so addictive to running that I started looking for event runs wherever I visited – be it a personal or an official visit. 

The office was planning an offsite in Jaipur in 1^st week of Feb 14 and it happened to coincide with Ambuja Jaipur Marathon 2014 on Feb 02, 2014. And to my surprise, I managed to finish it in 02:07:42 hrs, my personal best (PB) and better than SCMM 2014. The addiction to running became so strong that I carried my running gears wherever I travelled. My target of sub 2 was still not achieved. I kept on participating; added Hiranandani Thane Half Marathon 2014, Durshet Forest Marathon 2014, Airtel Hyderabad Marathon 2014, Satara Hill Marathon 2014, Mussoorie Half Marathon 2014. All above mentioned marathons of 2014 have their own stories, deadlines and beautiful moments. I would make a special mention of Mussoorie Half Marathon 2014. It was the toughest hill half marathon so far in my life, even tougher than Satara Hill Marathon; I struggled for breathing at 8,000 ft but managed to finish it in 02:21 hrs. I still could not finish sub 2 in any of these marathons. So, my hunger still remained on.

 

Meanwhile, in Aug 14, I changed my training plans. I started doing stairs, joined Kick Boxing and concentrated on core exercises apart from routine practice runs. I followed a tough training plan, did lot of Abs, Planks and Hill runs. I controlled my diet and avoided overeating; brought down sugar intake to almost nil. I started practicing a lot on stairs; increased the nos from 1000 to 2000 to 5000 to 8000 to 11,111 to 15,555 all at one go individually. Believe me stairs’ training brought wonders in my life. It made me so confident that my dream of sub 2 looked not too far as I had been eagerly waiting for Airtel Delhi Half Marathon 2014. Since I had become an active runner, I had been aware of runs – easy and tough both happening across the country. Bangalore Ultra was one of them where there were categories like 12.5k, 25k, 50k, 75k, 100k and 24 Hours run; heard many good stories about it. I was very clear that I didn’t want to go for 12.5k and 25k and I never ran beyond 21k in my life. So going for minimum 50k was out of my sight. But I decided to plunge in the sea and registered for Bangalore Ultra 2014 under 50k category two weeks before the run date. I didn’t have any training and strategy in my mind but I decided to go for it as I was mentally prepared. On Nov 08, 2014, I ran. The first 10k, I did in 59 mins, 21k in 1:59 hrs, 25k in 2:27 hrs, 42k in 04:35 hrs and 50k in 05:45 hrs. I struggled a lot in the last 10k; I thought, had my training been fine, I would have achieved it easily. Nonetheless, I managed to finish 50k in a comfortable time of 05:45 hrs, a feat which I dedicate to my commitments to hard training and strict diet. This boosted my confidence so high that I was sure to finish ADHM 2014 scheduled on Nov 23, 2014 within sub 2. I took the next few practice runs easily, focused more on core training and practiced few sprint runs.

Delhi on Nov 23, 2014 had a wonderful weather, perfect for any runner. The gun was shot and runners set their pace at their respective speeds. I managed to finish it in 01:52 hrs, my first sub 2 Half Marathon after a year wait. I was so happy that I started crying at the finish line.

It would have been unfair if I would not have finished 2014 in style. I participated in Skyscraper Dash Everest Stairs Challenge (involving 1 lakh plus stairs in a team of 4-6 members) on Dec 21, 2014. Our team, “The Unstoppables” did a remarkable job of completing the challenge in an average time of 3:00 hrs per person beating Bangalore record by 13 mins. The total stairs climbed were 109,000 out of which mine contribution was 18,750 stairs. Hindustan Times acknowledged our effort and put a congratulatory note on their newspaper on Dec 25, 2014. Dec 25, 2014 was another running day; I participated in EMIDAR Navi Mumbai Half Marathon. The management was horrible with no active support. Most of the runners ended up stopping early or ran more; I ran 22.63 km more than my scheduled 21 km. Though I got my PB (1:50 hrs), I was upset with their poor management.

Now the focus has shifted to few other Half Marathons like SCMM 2015 (scheduled on Jan 18, 2015), Thane Hiranandani Half Marathon (schedule on Feb 15, 2015) and two biggies Ultras – RuntheRann Ultra, Kutchh (100 km, scheduled on Feb 06-09, 2015 at one of the most hottest and toughest conditions of Kutchh) and Twilight Ultra Challenge, Singapore (scheduled on Mar 29, 2015). I hope to do better and much better than my past runs. For the moment, my target for sub 2 is 100 mins and I hope to achieve it in 2015 along with two ultras which I am determined to finish it strongly.

My earnings over the last 3 years, most of them in the last 1.5 years – 18 Half Marathons and 2 Ultras. I don’t know where this madness will stop but I plan to make it 100 over the next few years.

1)     SCMM 2012 – Half Marathon – 02:50:20 – Jan 15, 2012

2)     Airtel Hyd Marathon 2012 – Half Marathon – 02:50:58 – Aug 26, 2012

3)     SCMM 2013 – Half Marathon – 02:45:03 – Jan 20, 2013

4)     Hiranandani Thane Half Marathon 2013 – Half Marathon – 03:15:45 – Feb 24, 2013

5)     Airtel Hyd Marathon 2013 – Half Marathon – 02:29:25 – Aug 25, 2013

6)     Vasai-Virar National Mayor’s Marathon 2013 – Half Marathon – 02:32:16 – Oct 27, 2013

7)     Zendurance Nashik 2013 – Half Marathon – 02:14:42 – Nov 17, 2013

8)     Pune International Marathon 2013 – Half Marathon – 02:16:07 – Dec 01, 2013

9)     SCMM 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:11:34 – Jan 19, 2014

10)  Ambuja Jaipur Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:07:42 – Feb 02, 2014

11)  Hiranandani Thane Half Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:15:40 – Feb 16, 2014

12)  Durshet Forest Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:07:35 – Aug 10, 2014

13)  Mumbai Ultra 12 Hours Run 2014 – Ultra Marathon (65 Km) – 09:30:30 – Aug 15, 2014

14)  Airtel Hyd Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:10:46 – Aug 24, 2014

15)  Satara Hill Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:07:34 – Sep 14, 2014

16)  Mussoorie Half Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 02:21:25 – Nov 01, 2014

17)  Perfomax Bangalore Utlra 2014 – Ultra Marathon (50 Km) – 05:48:34 – Nov 08, 2014

18)  Airtel Delhi Half Marathon 2014 – Half Marathon – 01:52:38 – Nov 23, 2014

19)  Skyscraper Dash Everest Challenge 2014 (109,000 stairs in a team of 6) – 3:01 hrs per person – Dec 21, 2014

20)  Emidar Navi Mumbai Marathon 2014 – 1:50:21 – Dec 25, 2014

21)  Powai Run 2015 - 02:21 - Jan 04, 2015 (Paced my friend, Dr Bhavana Diyora to get her PB)

22)  SCMM 2015 – Half Marathon – 01:46:02 - Jan 18, 2015

Life changed very fast in the last two years, especially in the last one year; everything looked positive to me, personally met so many wonderful and determined people, most of them runners of different ages. I am blessed that I am surrounded by positive people, friends and bosses who always supported me in my dreams. God bless everyone!

Happy Running!

From Sky to Ground

From sky, it is another pile of stones,

With green vegetation and jagged patches,

With few houses and few stray dogs,

With few plateaus and few fickling slopes,

With few birds perching on trees.

It’s one of the mountains of Navi Mumbai,

It is the Parsik Hill.

On ground, it is a paradise for old timers cherishing their past,

It has boulevard for hill runners, a training ground for endurance,

It has a tree filled oasis, creating an incredible green archway,

It is a hotspot for love birds having tête-à-tête banter,

It owns a Shree Krishna Temple hymning “Hare Rama, Hare Krishna”,

It is the veloscope for Navi Mumbai providing panoramic view,

It’s the refurbished Parsik Hill.

I wish there will be enough people,

To mesmerize its beauty till the lane ends at both ends.

O, Parsik, my Parsik, you remain forever in my heart.

I have a passion for you

Embarked on with ‘me too’ approach having no targets and no destination,

but ended with desolation and frustration.

Felt like I lost my battle, a battle aimed to conclude contentedly.

A year went by with no clear mind and no bump,

crashed into another destination with a slender progress.

It opened my mind, my passion with a submission for an explicit target.

Harder I went through like tunesmith for their melodies,

The more, it shaped my credence with a new aspiration.

My taste for new places went up, so my ardor with anonymous epic,

with each destination added, a new target laddered.

The gap between the stance and the swing narrowed, ensued a new swiftness;

conquered mountains, burnt road and sailed rivers.

They became my first love, my first home;

Yes, I have a passion for you, “Ms. Running”. 

Dare to be Different – Behave/Invest Unconventionally

In investment world, the experts are convinced that a portfolio needs to be diversified especially when you are managing public money. It is better to follow conventional behavior rather than to feel sorry later which may have many repercussions like compensation cuts, job loss, embarrassment, unpleasant headlines et cetera. However, when you set a path where you dare to be different rather than a part of the herd, you are supposed to take a different route with Unconventional Behavior for Favorable Outcomes.

Howard Marks, one of the World’s most renowned Portfolio Manager and Chairman of Oaktree Clients portrays a similar story in his latest memo, “Dare to Be Great II” (the first memo on “Dare to Be Great”, he had written in mid 2006). He says if you want to be an outstanding wealth creator, you need to be different with different outset. In his words,

“The real question is whether you dare to do things that are necessary in order to be great. Are you willing to be different, and are you willing to be wrong? In order to have a chance at great results, you have to be open to being both.”

He says that an investor can’t take the same actions as everyone else and expects to outperform. It ought to be different – you have to assemble a portfolio that is different from those held by most other investors.

He suggested a two-by-two matrix along with a rationale.

 

“Only if your behavior is unconventional is your performance likely to be unconventional…and only if your judgments are superior is your performance likely to be above average”

For those who define investment success as being “average or better,” three of the four cells of the matrix represent satisfactory outcomes. But if you define success strictly as being superior, only one of the four will do, and it requires unconventional behavior.

So, what needs to be done to act different? He says, 1) being active in unusual market niches, 2) buying things other haven’t found, 3) don’t like or consider too risky to touch, 4) avoiding market darlings that the crowd thinks can’t lose, 5) engaging in contrarian cycle timing, and 6) concentrating heavily in a small number of things you think will deliver exceptional performance.

Noted but they look nice on paper…

Few points mentioned above may not be applicable in many developed countries as the efficient markets hypothesis comes into picture and there is hardly any known arbitrage. However, in India, where the equity market has still not found its depth despite many years of its existence provides the perfect place to replicate all unconventional behavior. The word of caution is for investors who are not willing to take risks and are happy to take home an average return. But for investor or portfolio manager or those who has some sense in financial market can play different to get above-average results with favorable outcomes.

Is it easy to be different?

Howard quotes from Pioneering Portfolio Management by David Swensen of Yale (also my favorite Asset Allocator; you can listen his one of his lecture on Portfolio Management and Asset Allocation)

“Establishing and maintaining an unconventional investment profile requires acceptance of uncomfortably idiosyncratic portfolios, which frequently appear downright imprudent in the eyes of conventional wisdom”

Non-consensus ideas need to be alone, if you want to achieve above average results.

For kissing success, you need to witness a fail

If you are on a path where you have not tasted any defeats or have not committed any mistakes, then you may not get extraordinary results. You have to give yourself a chance to fail; learn from your mistakes.

The above matrix says that since the conventional behavior is sure to produce average performance, people who want to be above average can’t expect to get there by engaging in conventional behavior. Their behavior has to be different. And in the course of trying to be different and better, they have to bear the risk of being different and worse. Superior skills can increase the expected benefit from concentration and leverage.

He further states that superior investment results can only stem from a better-than-average ability to figure out when risk-taking will lead to fain and when it will end in loss. There is no alternative.

Dare to Look Wrong

He states, “This is really the bottom-line: not whether you dare to be different or to be wrong, but whether you dare to look wrong.” In order to get results, investment manager accept that they will make mistakes to make correct investment decisions. However, the real challenge is few people expect to find a lot of sure things or achieve a perfect batting average.

In a nutshell, we have to believe that you need to behave differently with unconventional behavior to achieve above average results. Unconventional behavior is the only road to superior investment results, but it isn’t for everyone. In addition to superior skill, successful investing requires the ability to look wrong for a while and survive some mistakes.

Rightly said, it isn’t for weak heart investors who can’t see losses.