Highlights:
• Bonds take a break from a continuous 5 week rally; the benchmark bond 6.35% 2020 yield moved to 7.55%, up by 18 bps
• Domestic bond market mirrored US Govt. Bonds; US Treasury bonds’ yields rallied on account of poor consumer spending data
• Liquidity took a major hit; the 3G payments coupled with advance tax outflows put a strain on liquidity
• The RBI announced two liquidity easing measures – additional liquidity support up to 0.5% of banks’ NDTL and 2nd LAF (SLAF) on daily basis
• Call rates and inter-bank rates are likely to go up this week
View & Recommendation:
• With yields easing, fund managers have started increasing the average maturity of income funds, thereby, increasing their ranks in terms of returns.
• Investors looking for investments for a shorter period (6 months - 1 year) should invest in Ultra Short Term Funds (erstwhile called as Liquid Plus Funds) while those looking for a longer investment horizon (1.5 - 3 years) should invest in Income Funds.
• Some of the recommended Income Funds are Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund, ICICI Prudential Income Fund and Kotak Bond Regular Plan.
Broader Perspectives:
Bond Front
Indian bond markets took a break from a 5-week rally mirroring the movements in US Treasury yields and also incorporating the domestic factors such as liquidity crisis. However, the cancellation of weekly auctions looks distant as the government has other payment commitments such as Cash Management Bills worth Rs. 20,000 Cr, Bond maturities worth Rs. 50,000 Cr in July, cut in Treasury Bills auction size limited to Rs. 22,000 Cr along with government funding to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to the tune of Rs. 14,000 Cr.
Earlier, last week, the bonds rallied after an announcement of probable cancellation of bond auctions this week due to liquidity squeeze arising out of 3G outflows and advance tax payments. The 3G outflows alone is sucking liquidity to an extent of Rs. 67,719 Cr.
The 10-year Benchmark Bond 6.35 per cent 2020 yield shot to 7.55 per cent, up by 18 bps over its last week close. The other heavily traded bond 8.20 per cent 2022 saw yields rise by 17bps to 7.80 per cent on weak-on-weak basis. The average trading volume for G-Secs as reported in NDS-OM platform was Rs. 19,985 Cr. Last week, there were 4 trading days only as the banks were closed on Thrusday (May 27, 2010).
Bond Supply
The government auctioned bonds worth Rs. 12,000 Cr. The notified auction amount was Rs. 4,000 Cr, Rs. 5,000 Cr and Rs. 3,000 Cr for 7.38% G-Sec 2015, 7.80% G-Sec 2020 and 8.32% G-Sec 2032 respectively. The bid to cover ratio was highest (2.5 times) in 10-year benchmark paper, the highest traded paper. The cut-off came in at 7.41 per cent, 7.60 per cent and 8.25 per cent respectively. The government will buyback Cash Management Bills worth Rs. 20,000 Cr this week.
Liquidity Desk
The liquidity was tight last week on account of 3G auction payments by Telecom Companies. Moreover, the advance tax outflows as expected on June 15 have also started putting strain on Liquidity. To ease the pressure, the RBI announced special measures to provide liquidity in the system. The RBI allowed banks additional support under the liquidity adjustment facility. The Central Bank will conduct two rounds of LAF operations. It also permitted banks to avail support of up to 0.5 per cent of their Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL), the steps which will provide an additional liquidity support of Rs. 20,000 Cr. Both the measures would be applicable till July 02, 2010
Corporate Desk
Corporate bond yields hardened across the tenors. The AAA, 10-year paper hardened to 8.67% compared to 8.60% compared to last week. The 1-year bond traded at a yield of 6.65 per cent. This week, corporate bonds’ yields rose less than the government bond yields. The ten-year benchmark AAA spread shrank to 96bps, down by 14 bps. Corporate bond yields are likely to move higher on account of liquidity worries and interest rate spikes.
May 31, 2010
May 26, 2010
Yields softened on robust 3G collections and global cues
Highlights:
• Bond yields rallied for the fifth week straight; 10-year benchmark bond 7.80% 2020 settled at 7.37%
• Euro zone crisis continues to led to flight to safety; funds flowing in to US
• 3G auctions fetched Rs. 67,719 crore to government exchequer, much higher than the government expectation of Rs. 35,000 crore; Broadband wireless auction to fetch another Rs. 15,000 crore too
• The 1-10 year YTM spreads decreased by 21 bps to 254 bps
• Government resorted to 28-day Cash Management Bills again over and above its scheduled weekly auction showing that government’s finances are still under pressure
View & Recommendation:
• G-Sec markets are likely to take cues from policy maker statements and will closely watch the Euro Zone for any developments.
• Markets at shorter end of the curve are expected to take cues from liquidity in the system as 3G outflows might put pressure on short term rates.
• The front end of Corporate Bond curve (1 – 5 years) seems to more attractive compared to overnight rates.
Broader Perspectives:
Bond Front
Indian bond markets rallied for the fifth week straight mirroring the US Treasury yields and also on account of positive cues from the domestic market. Higher than expected 3G auctions collection to the tune of Rs. 67,719 Cr along with comments from RBI Governor and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman that the government may cut down its borrowing in FY 2010-11 aided the rally in bond prices. Moreover, European Debt Crisis including ban on naked Short Selling on selective instruments by Germany led to flight to safety, triggering down the US, UK yields. US Treasury yields also fell due to higher than expected unemployment rate. On the last day of week, the 10-year benchmark bond 7.80 % 2020 settled at 7.37 per cent, a fall of 12 bps against last week close of 7.49 per cent. It touched its weekly low of 7.32 per cent. Global risk appetite battered after Germany banned naked short-selling on selective Euro Zone bonds, triggering fears that there may be more trouble from the region in the days to come.
Inflation Front
On the economy front, the inflation continues to worry government with both its indicative tools i.e. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) at double digit level. However, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman asserted that India’s Inflation as measured by WPI may fall further in coming 2-3 months. The market is expecting that the softening of yields including softened inflation numbers in coming months may prompt RBI to stall its exit from accommodative monetary policy. Earlier, the RBI has indicated that they will continue to exit from accommodative monetary measures on a regular basis in the face of demand led pressure on inflation. India’s annual inflation rate based on CPI for Rural Labourers fell to 14.96 per cent in April from 15.52 per cent in March. Primary articles inflation also cooled down to 16.19 per cent in the week ended May 08 from 16.76 per cent a week earlier, however, the food articles inflation jumped to 16.49 per cent from 16.44 per cent in the previous week.
Bonds Supply
The government auctioned bonds worth Rs. 13,000 Cr which were subscribed fully with no devolvement to Primary Dealers. The auctioned bonds were 7.02% 2016, 8.20% 2022 and 8.26% 2027 for amounts of Rs. 5,000 Cr, Rs. 5,000 Cr and Rs. 3,000 Cr respectively. The cut-off yields came in at 7.29 per cent, 7.64 per cent and 7.97 per cent respectively. The bid to cover ratio in 8.26% 2027 were around 2.5 times while remaining bonds witnessed subscribing little below 2 times. Moreover, the auctions of these relative liquid bonds added an increasing interest among dealers and buyers. The government also issued 28-day Cash Management Bills (CMB) at an average yield of 3.9225 per cent.
Liquidity Front
Liquidity as measured by bids for reverse repo/repo in Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) remained comfortable. The reverse repo bids averaged Rs. 42,779 Cr from Rs. 28,749 Cr in the previous week. The liquidity may be under strain following the FIIs outflows in term of Portfolio Outflows and payouts for 3G auction bids. The average call rates and repo rates softened to 3.72 per cent and 3.40 per cent from 3.79 per cent and 3.47 per cent a week earlier respectively.
Corporate Bonds Front
Corporate Bonds saw spread closing up. Five and Ten year’s benchmark AAA spreads closed up by 3 bps at 80bps and 109 bps levels respectively. The ten year AAA bond traded at a yield of around 8.60 per cent, lower from 8.68 per cent observed last week.
• Bond yields rallied for the fifth week straight; 10-year benchmark bond 7.80% 2020 settled at 7.37%
• Euro zone crisis continues to led to flight to safety; funds flowing in to US
• 3G auctions fetched Rs. 67,719 crore to government exchequer, much higher than the government expectation of Rs. 35,000 crore; Broadband wireless auction to fetch another Rs. 15,000 crore too
• Comment from a Senior Finance Ministry official that approval of hike in ceiling on FII’s investment in Sovereign Bonds cheered the bond market during the week
• Liquidity remained comfortable; stood at a daily average level of Rs. 42,779 Cr against Rs. 28,749 Cr reported last week
• The 1-10 year YTM spreads decreased by 21 bps to 254 bps
• Government resorted to 28-day Cash Management Bills again over and above its scheduled weekly auction showing that government’s finances are still under pressure
• G-Sec markets are likely to take cues from policy maker statements and will closely watch the Euro Zone for any developments.
• Markets at shorter end of the curve are expected to take cues from liquidity in the system as 3G outflows might put pressure on short term rates.
• The front end of Corporate Bond curve (1 – 5 years) seems to more attractive compared to overnight rates.
Broader Perspectives:
Bond Front
Indian bond markets rallied for the fifth week straight mirroring the US Treasury yields and also on account of positive cues from the domestic market. Higher than expected 3G auctions collection to the tune of Rs. 67,719 Cr along with comments from RBI Governor and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman that the government may cut down its borrowing in FY 2010-11 aided the rally in bond prices. Moreover, European Debt Crisis including ban on naked Short Selling on selective instruments by Germany led to flight to safety, triggering down the US, UK yields. US Treasury yields also fell due to higher than expected unemployment rate. On the last day of week, the 10-year benchmark bond 7.80 % 2020 settled at 7.37 per cent, a fall of 12 bps against last week close of 7.49 per cent. It touched its weekly low of 7.32 per cent. Global risk appetite battered after Germany banned naked short-selling on selective Euro Zone bonds, triggering fears that there may be more trouble from the region in the days to come.
Inflation Front
On the economy front, the inflation continues to worry government with both its indicative tools i.e. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) at double digit level. However, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman asserted that India’s Inflation as measured by WPI may fall further in coming 2-3 months. The market is expecting that the softening of yields including softened inflation numbers in coming months may prompt RBI to stall its exit from accommodative monetary policy. Earlier, the RBI has indicated that they will continue to exit from accommodative monetary measures on a regular basis in the face of demand led pressure on inflation. India’s annual inflation rate based on CPI for Rural Labourers fell to 14.96 per cent in April from 15.52 per cent in March. Primary articles inflation also cooled down to 16.19 per cent in the week ended May 08 from 16.76 per cent a week earlier, however, the food articles inflation jumped to 16.49 per cent from 16.44 per cent in the previous week.
Bonds Supply
The government auctioned bonds worth Rs. 13,000 Cr which were subscribed fully with no devolvement to Primary Dealers. The auctioned bonds were 7.02% 2016, 8.20% 2022 and 8.26% 2027 for amounts of Rs. 5,000 Cr, Rs. 5,000 Cr and Rs. 3,000 Cr respectively. The cut-off yields came in at 7.29 per cent, 7.64 per cent and 7.97 per cent respectively. The bid to cover ratio in 8.26% 2027 were around 2.5 times while remaining bonds witnessed subscribing little below 2 times. Moreover, the auctions of these relative liquid bonds added an increasing interest among dealers and buyers. The government also issued 28-day Cash Management Bills (CMB) at an average yield of 3.9225 per cent.
Liquidity Front
Liquidity as measured by bids for reverse repo/repo in Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) remained comfortable. The reverse repo bids averaged Rs. 42,779 Cr from Rs. 28,749 Cr in the previous week. The liquidity may be under strain following the FIIs outflows in term of Portfolio Outflows and payouts for 3G auction bids. The average call rates and repo rates softened to 3.72 per cent and 3.40 per cent from 3.79 per cent and 3.47 per cent a week earlier respectively.
Corporate Bonds Front
Corporate Bonds saw spread closing up. Five and Ten year’s benchmark AAA spreads closed up by 3 bps at 80bps and 109 bps levels respectively. The ten year AAA bond traded at a yield of around 8.60 per cent, lower from 8.68 per cent observed last week.
May 18, 2010
Domestic bond yields take cues from US, UK
Highlights:
• Ten year benchmark bond 7.80 per cent 2020 closed at 7.49 per cent touching its Dec figures, down by 15 bps from 7.64 per cent reported last week
• US $ 1 trillion EURO and IMF rescue package to Euro-Zone failed to cheer the world market post announcement
• Flight to Safety witnessed where the money moved out of emerging markets and fled back to US, UK and Germany bonds; yields touched their six-month lows
• India’s headline inflation as measured by Wholesale Price index (WPI) eased to 9.59 per cent in April from 9.9 per cent a month ago
• Liquidity traded at a daily average level of Rs. 28,749 crore
• Income category funds saw an inflow of Rs. 1,77,773 lakh crore in April as compare to an outflow of Rs. 1,64,487 crore as per the data released by AMFI
View &Recommendation:
• Bond yields continue to move down tracking the spurt in buying of US, UK and Germany bonds. The Euro crisis failed to settle down even after the announcement of a rescue package of US $ 1 trillion by other European Union and IMF. The shock waves sent by Euro zone are affecting the currency markets which may lead to a fall in EURO. Equity markets too fall in line with all major world indices going southwards.
• Looking forward, the lower end of the yield curve will continue to trade in range bound. However, in long term, the bond yields may witness upward revisions due to continuous supply of papers.
• The top recommended funds in Ultra Short Term category (erstwhile called as Liquid-Plus Funds) are IDFC Money Manager – Invest Plan – Plan A, HDFC Cash Management Fund – Treasury Advantage and Kotak Floater Fund while in Liquid Fund category, the recommended schemes are HDFC Cash Management Fund – Savings Plan and Reliance Liquidity Fund.
Broader Perspectives:
Though India’s headline inflation figure based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) narrowed to 9.59 per cent in April from 9.90 per cent a month ago, the government continues to worry from the high figures. The Chief Economic Advisor says that Inflation will continue to fluctuate over the next three months before it starts falling steadily. The WPI topped the 10 per cent mark for the first time in 15 months in February. The higher than the expected inflation put upward pressure on yields. The Industrial Output data as measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slid to 13.5 per cent in March against the market expectation of 15 per cent; manufacturing output grew 14.3 per cent in March compared with 16.1 per cent in February.
The benchmark bond 7.80 per cent 2020 yield dropped below 7.50 per cent level. It closed at 7.49 per cent touching its December figures, down by 15 bps from 7.64 per cent. The G-Sec spread of 10-5 years maturity bonds narrowed to 23 basis points from 27 bps a fortnight earlier. However, the 5-1 year spread widened to 214 bps from 165 bps reported last fortnight. G-Secs rallied following a fall in US Treasury yields, lower IIP and WPI figures. The most traded G-Sec 8.20 per cent 2022 saw yield falling to 7.74 per cent, down by 11 bps. The higher than the expected revenue from 3G auctions will help reducing the high borrowing program. The government is expected to raise Rs. 50,000 crore as against the expected figures of Rs. 35,000 crore. If 2G recommendations as suggested TRAI are implicated by the Telecom Ministry, the government will add additional revenue to its chest. The government issued Cash Management Bills of worth Rs. 6,000 crore at a cut-off yield of 3.87 per cent to pay off its bond redemptions.
The week saw an auction worth Rs. 12,000 crore of Government Securities namely 6.85% G-Sec 2012 (Re-issue), 6.35% G-Sec 2020 (Re-issue) and 8.26% G-Sec 2027 (Re-issue) for a notified amount of Rs. 5,000 crore, Rs. 5,000 crore and Rs. 2,000 crore respectively. All the securities were auctioned off successfully at cut-off yields of 7.24 per cent, 7.54 per cent and 8.22 per cent. There was no devolvement to Primary Dealers. However, the appetite among bond buyers seems to be dampened as the bid to cover ratio slipped below 2X despite a strong bond rally. The 10-year benchmark paper was subscribed to an extent of 1.58 times only. However, there was a strong demand on shorter tenure paper. The bond 6.85% 2012 was subscribed by around 3 times.
Liquidity as measured by bids for reverse repo/repo in the LAF (Liquidity Adjustment Facility) averaged Rs. 28,749 crore against last week average of Rs. 55,491 crore. Banks were also reluctant to lend to each other following weak credit sentiment in the market. The average Call and CBLO rate increased to 3.79 per cent and 3.68 per cent from 3.74 per cent and 3.32 per cent reported last week.
• Ten year benchmark bond 7.80 per cent 2020 closed at 7.49 per cent touching its Dec figures, down by 15 bps from 7.64 per cent reported last week
• US $ 1 trillion EURO and IMF rescue package to Euro-Zone failed to cheer the world market post announcement
• Flight to Safety witnessed where the money moved out of emerging markets and fled back to US, UK and Germany bonds; yields touched their six-month lows
• India’s headline inflation as measured by Wholesale Price index (WPI) eased to 9.59 per cent in April from 9.9 per cent a month ago
• Liquidity traded at a daily average level of Rs. 28,749 crore
• Income category funds saw an inflow of Rs. 1,77,773 lakh crore in April as compare to an outflow of Rs. 1,64,487 crore as per the data released by AMFI
View &Recommendation:
• Bond yields continue to move down tracking the spurt in buying of US, UK and Germany bonds. The Euro crisis failed to settle down even after the announcement of a rescue package of US $ 1 trillion by other European Union and IMF. The shock waves sent by Euro zone are affecting the currency markets which may lead to a fall in EURO. Equity markets too fall in line with all major world indices going southwards.
• Looking forward, the lower end of the yield curve will continue to trade in range bound. However, in long term, the bond yields may witness upward revisions due to continuous supply of papers.
• The top recommended funds in Ultra Short Term category (erstwhile called as Liquid-Plus Funds) are IDFC Money Manager – Invest Plan – Plan A, HDFC Cash Management Fund – Treasury Advantage and Kotak Floater Fund while in Liquid Fund category, the recommended schemes are HDFC Cash Management Fund – Savings Plan and Reliance Liquidity Fund.
Broader Perspectives:
Though India’s headline inflation figure based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) narrowed to 9.59 per cent in April from 9.90 per cent a month ago, the government continues to worry from the high figures. The Chief Economic Advisor says that Inflation will continue to fluctuate over the next three months before it starts falling steadily. The WPI topped the 10 per cent mark for the first time in 15 months in February. The higher than the expected inflation put upward pressure on yields. The Industrial Output data as measured by Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slid to 13.5 per cent in March against the market expectation of 15 per cent; manufacturing output grew 14.3 per cent in March compared with 16.1 per cent in February.
The benchmark bond 7.80 per cent 2020 yield dropped below 7.50 per cent level. It closed at 7.49 per cent touching its December figures, down by 15 bps from 7.64 per cent. The G-Sec spread of 10-5 years maturity bonds narrowed to 23 basis points from 27 bps a fortnight earlier. However, the 5-1 year spread widened to 214 bps from 165 bps reported last fortnight. G-Secs rallied following a fall in US Treasury yields, lower IIP and WPI figures. The most traded G-Sec 8.20 per cent 2022 saw yield falling to 7.74 per cent, down by 11 bps. The higher than the expected revenue from 3G auctions will help reducing the high borrowing program. The government is expected to raise Rs. 50,000 crore as against the expected figures of Rs. 35,000 crore. If 2G recommendations as suggested TRAI are implicated by the Telecom Ministry, the government will add additional revenue to its chest. The government issued Cash Management Bills of worth Rs. 6,000 crore at a cut-off yield of 3.87 per cent to pay off its bond redemptions.
The week saw an auction worth Rs. 12,000 crore of Government Securities namely 6.85% G-Sec 2012 (Re-issue), 6.35% G-Sec 2020 (Re-issue) and 8.26% G-Sec 2027 (Re-issue) for a notified amount of Rs. 5,000 crore, Rs. 5,000 crore and Rs. 2,000 crore respectively. All the securities were auctioned off successfully at cut-off yields of 7.24 per cent, 7.54 per cent and 8.22 per cent. There was no devolvement to Primary Dealers. However, the appetite among bond buyers seems to be dampened as the bid to cover ratio slipped below 2X despite a strong bond rally. The 10-year benchmark paper was subscribed to an extent of 1.58 times only. However, there was a strong demand on shorter tenure paper. The bond 6.85% 2012 was subscribed by around 3 times.
Liquidity as measured by bids for reverse repo/repo in the LAF (Liquidity Adjustment Facility) averaged Rs. 28,749 crore against last week average of Rs. 55,491 crore. Banks were also reluctant to lend to each other following weak credit sentiment in the market. The average Call and CBLO rate increased to 3.79 per cent and 3.68 per cent from 3.74 per cent and 3.32 per cent reported last week.
May 9, 2010
May 3, 2010
New benchmark yield 7.80% 2020 closed 5 bps down
New benchmark yield 7.80% 2020 closed 5 bps down
Highlights:
· Introduction of a new benchmark yield 7.80% 2020; yield cut-off at lower than the market expectation of 7.85%
· US Treasury yields traded down due to flight to safety after funds started moving out of emerging economies in lieu of Greece’s Fiscal woes
· Comfortable liquidity in the system; averaged Rs. 47,227 crore over the week
· Effective G-Sec borrowing to be little over Rs. 38,000 crore; bonds worth Rs. 26,876 is likely to retire this month
· Six year G-Sec 7.02% 2016 emerged as the most traded security with average volume of Rs. 5,482 crore
· Inflation based on Primary Articles moderated to 13.55 per cent against 14.14 per cent reported last week
View & Recommendation:
The sentiment is likely to be positive in bond markets; yields may move down further following surplus liquidity, positive MET forecast, low inflation (in weeks ahead), increased and improved inclination for government bond supply. Corporate bonds have seen their spread shrinking further due to increased FII’s buying interests and many other bond deals pipelined in the weeks ahead. Investors having investment horizon of 6 months to 1 year should invest in Ultra Short Term Funds. Once benchmark bond yields stabilizes at 8 to 8.25% levels, long term investors can consider shifting to Income Funds.
Broader Perspective:
Throughout the week, the benchmark G-Sec 6.35% 2020 lost its significance in the wake of announcement of new benchmark yield. It lost its liquidity and the six-year paper 7.02% 2016 emerged as the highest liquid paper with an average weekly volume of Rs. 5,482 crore. Last week, RBI conducted the auction of “7.38% 2015”, “8.28% 2032” and a new “Ten Year benchmark” for a notified amount of Rs. 5,000 crore, Rs. 2,000 crore and Rs. 5,000 crore respectively. The new 10-year benchmark paper received the highest bidding interest with bid to cover ratio of almost 4 times. The RBI fixed the cut-off yield at 7.80 per cent as against the market expectation of 7.85%. Soon after the yield fixation, the benchmark G-Sec slipped 5 bps and closed at 7.75% on account of bullish sentiments and easy liquidity. The bullish sentiment was further supported by a fall in US Treasury Yields as funds moved out of emerging economies on account of Greece’s sovereign crisis leading to Flight to Safety. Standard & Poor has downgraded Greece’s credit rating to Junk and cut Portugal’s rating by two notches to A-minus. It also cut its ratings on Spain by one notch to AA from AA-plus.
This week, the RBI is going to borrow Rs. 15,000 crore. Moreover, the government will also require paying to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) for making up the losses out of subsidies borne out by them. Though the government has expected to raise more than the budgeted Rs. 35,000 crore, the government’s financial strain is continue to worry.
RBI Governor D Subbarao said that high inflation was a big worry for the economy and the central bank would take calibrated approach in unwinding the accommodative measures. He also acknowledged that there could be crowding out of the private sector’s credit needs. Further, Deputy Governor Dr. K C Chakrabarty commented that RBI had not issued an extension to all banks to achieve 70% provision cover and would treat banks’ request on case-to-case basis.
On the liquidity front, the liquidity as measured by bids for reverse repo/repo under LAF (Liquidity Adjustment Facility) averaged Rs. 47,227 crore last week. The average CBLO rates spooked to 3.56 per cent from 2.99 per cent reported last week; however, the average CBLO volume declined to Rs. 47,445 crore from Rs. 51,112 crore reported last week.
Corporate bonds saw yields moving down last week. The 5- and 10-year corporate bond closed at 8.20 per cent and 8.70 per cent. However, the spread over G-Sec moved up by 13bps and 24 bps in 5- and 10- year corporate bonds respectively.
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