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March 31, 2011

Cricket let you dance; so with Financial Markets!

Generally I refrain from writing on issues not related to finance, but cricket is no longer unlinked to financial world. The industry bets high amount of money in ethical and unethical manners which helps both ways. After making a historic win over Men in Green, Men in Blue finally conquered the excitement and gifted a beautiful gift to all Indians who stood still on Mar 30, 2011 from their regular work. One Billion plus prayers worked for us. Now the focus shifts to India vs Sri Lanka. The online domains are already filled with slogans favoring India like Ram Sena on its way to conquer Ravan Sena, Lanka. Both the teams are at their best; India has to work on its negatives. It is just few hours away from 1983 historic day, after which we could not witness.

Out of these hopes, the question arises – are there any relationships between cricket and financial world? What are the best chances that India would win? Exactly 28 years back i.e. in 1983, all the days and dates match with those of 2011. So, we have a strong chance we would repeat the history. Also, in 1983, the current finance minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee was the then finance minister under then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Though there does not emerge any correlations on these happenings, superstitions and astrological theories have always surrounded the game of cricket. Also, the current networking age or the age of Twitters, Facebook or Orkut, the positive correlations emerge like a rising sun in the east.

Cricket is considered as a religion in Indian sub-continent which boasts of world’s major population. Luckily, the ICC World Cup 2011 would have remained in this continent even if we had lost the match against Pakistan. Examining the relationships between Cricket and Stock Market, the events suggest that large sporting events do affect the sentiments of viewers which ultimately become investors. Depending upon their mood swings, stock prices move through crests and troughs.  Mishra and Smith (2010) have already shown that there is an asymmetric relationship between the performance of the Indian Cricket team and stock returns on the Indian Stock Market. While a win by the Indian cricket team has no statistically significant upward impact on stock market returns, a loss generates a significant downward movement in the stock market. When Sachin Tendulker, India's most popular cricketer plays, the size of the downward movement in returns is larger. However, in last few trading days, when the cricket fever is on, markets have moved upwards. Though there are reasons, the continuous wins support the correlations. This time, it has worked positively.

Even Aiyar and Ramcharan (2010) suggest that it is lucky for international cricketers to play their debut Test (international) match at home.
A good start may have a persistent, positive impact in other fields, too. Nonetheless, selection committees appear to systematically penalize both bowlers and batsmen for the misfortune of debuting abroad—and systematically penalize bowlers more than batsmen. It would therefore seem likely that similar biases are widespread among employers of all kinds, for whom performance metrics are more ambiguous, differences in initial conditions harder to judge, and the decision itself unlikely to be second-guessed by millions of opinionated fans around the globe.

Whatever the reasons be, Indians hype the situation beyond the limits and looks into all permutations and combinations. Why? The betting is on, boss! A large part of Indian financial market is conceptually linked to bettors. Let India play its natural game! Let them give 100% to win 110 crores hearts. Also, we stand united.

Enjoy the game!

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