World’s Largest Unpaid Mockery Show – Target 272

The idiot box fever says that people are on for it. Yes, Indians are swilled in the General Election mood. So are the allegations and counter allegations by different parties in the country. Though India never belonged to two party nests until few years after the independence in 1947, it is sure that the real political fight in 2014 is between Congress (UPA) and BJP (NDA). Though the media talks about the Third Party Front, it never stood on the dice together to see its fall as experienced in the past.

India stands at a very dicey situation. The policy paralysis and a series of scams during the UPA tenure made India’s political map on all leading news and media of the world. At least these leaders are making sure that India should be on the front for whatever reasons – good or bad. The NDA government led by Shri Atal Vihari Bajpayee lost in 2004 after completing a full five years term. The campaign, “Bharat Nirman” could not incite the inertia of the people to vote for them and the country saw the emergence of United Progressive Alliance (UPA). Few partners supported wholeheartedly, few were forced to support on CBI’s baton and few had no choices (as their party leaders’ love for beacon lights always made them change their loyalties frequently). The 9.5 years tenure had been very tumultuous in the name of few real achievements and many scams. The country saw many super powers like RTI which made many scams surfacing on the street. But it also led to death of many activists as the leaders got afraid of their pasts’ acts and deeds leading to killing of many activists. It also saw MNREGA, a social security programme promising 100 days of employment to unemployed people which later became a vote catching tool. The show continued and we are again back to the most sacred process where the franchises choose few electorates out of 1.25 billion people. This is a marathon exercise but thanks to the Election Commission of India which helps us in choosing a pack of few leaders (who suck people’ blood) amongst the mango people of banana republic.

Mini Election in Nov 13

2014 is going to see a different color in election and parties are readying themselves for the opening exercise due in Nov 13 in few states which will decide the flow of the air in near future. All parties are betting strongly but the real statistics would be counted between the BJP and Congress. Though it is very early to react on outcomes, the poll surveys favour a winning verdict for BJP in 3 states out of 4 states going for state polls. BJP with its star campaigner and its nominated PM candidate, Shri Narendra Modi has been rallying along the length and breadth of the country and is seeing a strong turnout on the ground. On the other hand, the young scions, Rahul Gandhi and his ailing mother, Smt Sonia Gandhi are the star campaigners for Congress and are campaigning across the country.

Are parties scared or confident?

Yes, we are seeing a different view on the street. People are empowered as communications have made information at the tip of a button. We knew few actions in Delhi – Anna Hazare’s Aandolan, Nirbhaya’s rape protests, Jessica Lal’s murder case etc. Thanks to social media tools which made the banana republic so powerful that the government at one point of time contemplated to axe the social media rules. Among all actions, India is forgetting one thing – 25 Cr new electorates will add in 2014 and it’s important for the parties to tap them. So, suddenly the focus has shifted from the rural population to the new cosmo-urban and new cities’ residents. The intensity is likely to intensify as we enter into the final phase of the election. The new population is demanding, educated and looking for actions on the street instead of staying put.

Who will dive out of the troubled pond?

Initial projections say that BJP is having the upper hand as their coveted star campaigner, Mr. Narendra Modi with his bespoke oratory skills is all out against the UPA government. However, the ruling government’s Prince and Princess (I believe naming them would be an insult on their popularity) with SPG security cover are also throwing their hats to put their government and their family members’ sacrifices for the current mock situation of the nation.

Youths need to decide a new path

It is very clear that people are aware and very provocative in terms of their demands and rights and we have seen it in many protests which rattled the government. The new 25 crores franchise along with the rural voters will decide a new stream in the country and all eyes are focused on them. Let us do a fair judgment and decide the future Prime Minister of India.

Vote – It is the most powerful tool in a democratic country. We should be proud of it.

How MMS-nomics failed in India?

Nine and a quarter years are not a small period for any individual to show his/her credibility and presence especially when you are running a country and know the nerves of the nation as you had been an economist in the past. You can gauge it easily and come out with a discreet plan to change the fortunes of a nation currently under the hammer from all sides.

Yes, I am talking about Man Mohan Singh (MMS), the current Prime Minister (PM) of India who we all admired when he was taking an oath under the constitution of India. It was a proud moment for all of us as MMS (please excuse me; it is not the live MMS. He followed only dirty politics) had been the RBI Governor cum Economist for 2.5 years in the early eighties and then the Finance Minster in the early 1990s when he had the credit of reviving the ailing economy from the slump . Unfortunately, the MMS-nomics could not work in India in his 3^rd stint as the Prime Minister of India and India saw the fall of her dignity along with the economic growth which is staring at the Hindu growth rate, a term coined when the GDP grows at 3.5 to 4% per annum.

MMS, since his elevation as PM has been construed as a puppet in the hands of the glorified dynasty run by a foreign born lady converted into India’s citizen due to a wicked past from a young and charismatic leader who is no more on this earth. We all hope the proverb “History repeats itself” does not prove true for the son who prefers eating at a Dalit’s home but never speaks on key national issues. Nonetheless he is still aspired for the post of PM. Despite getting a 2^nd term in 2009, MMS could not turn the mandate into an opportunity and a series of scandals followed for all past sins committed by his ministers including him when they handled different portfolios. Some scams are so prominent that the sums involved are just wild guesses and run into trillions of rupees. MMS-nomics failed at all fronts, be the foreign policy, home policy, finance policy or social security policy. Nonetheless, to a certain extent, MMS is not responsible for the apathy brought to the country in the current economic situation as he is not given a free hand and not allowed to take decisions as the power still lies in the hand of the UPA Chairperson. Unlike other countries where the Head of the State played an important role in formulating and announcing the economic policies, in India under MMS’s rein, all key decisions were hijacked by the ministers like PC and others who had murky pasts (some have been proven but others are yet to be proved) as per different media publications. All ministers worked in favor of their near and dear turning India’s vicissitudes to losses only. Scams ruled the nations and thanks to Media, it got uncover ed in a very short period of time. Imagine what would have the scams’ size involved in the past among the beneficiaries when there was only one news channel and few limited print publications. Some of the famous scandals of the past are the Telecom Scam in 1993, Bofors’ scandal and many more which never got exposed.

The series of scams and scandals involving trillions of rupees dented India’s image and it led FIIs to withdraw money faster than they pumped in. Thanks to hawked eye review of India’s sovereign rating by all leading rating agencies where they turned bearish, India turned unfavorable for FIIs. The statement by Ben Bernanke, Fed Chairman of the USA that they would reduce the pumping of cheap money in the system progressively also led to unrests across the world especially emerging countries like India. India got hit hard and due to absence of any other policies protecting its burgeoning CAD, the partially convertible currency, Rupee got hit harder. As I talk, it has already become a ‘Senior Citizen’ and is sitting at all time historic low. All other assets except real estate have already seen extended losses or staring at negative growth. In a few pockets of the country, Real Estate has already seen few defaults and if it spreads like a jungle fire, it may give a scathing attack on the economy of the country.

Thanks to media and people’s awareness, if the government does not respond in a constructive way very soon, they are going to see its own funeral. They will try their luck after they enacted Food Security Bill into a law by passing an ordinance but at the same time, it would also burden the state’s exchequer significantly.

Rise MMS Rise! Let others sleep peacefully! Jai Ho!

History Repeats in Politics!

Blogging has been very slow in last few months. Generally I avoid topics related to Politics but in last few days, many developments in Indian Political Circle have forced me to write. BJP, a National Party which started its journey from 2 MPs in 1984 to 182 seats in 1999 saw an unexpected mutiny by its patriarch and founding leader, L K Advani, also called as “Lauh Purush”. He resigned from all parliamentary boards and other committees in BJP seeing the elevation of Narendra Modi as the Poll Panel Chief for the general election 2014. Despite many efforts by all party leaders, he didn’t agree to withdraw the resignation. The cat and mouse game ended after 36 hours when he decided to stay put in BJP after RSS intervened. I will discuss repercussions on BJP by this drama by a person who portrayed himself rightly called, Mera Naam Joker.

JD(U), an ally of BJP in Bihar and a major party, had been eying an opportunity to corner Narendra Modi for his alleged role in Gujarat Riots (so far not proved in Indian rule of law) and the current elevation provided an opportunity to sever ties with BJP which may end 17 years of alliance in Bihar. The Cat and Mouse game in BJP led JD(U) leaders spreading the grapevine of breaking its alliance in Bihar. The reason – the unsecular characteristics of Narendra Modi and his elevation to Chief Campaigner in BJP which may ultimately be converted into Prime Minister’s role. Nitish Kumar fears that his party may lose Muslim Votes in Bihar if they accept Narendra Modi in the current form. Please note that Nitish Kumar fought election with BJP accepting Narendra Modi and sharing dias with him in many campaigns. All fail to understand how all of a sudden Nitish Kumar changed his mind to corner him in National Politics. 

Today all hell broke lose when their many leaders announced their willingness to snap ties with BJP in near future. In my opinion, Bihar’s electorate voted for NDA (a combination of BJP and JD(U)) and if any break in alliance happens, the electorate may not favor the decision by Nitish Kumar. 

Let me take you all to 2000 when Ram Vilas Paswan broke from JD(U) and founded Lok JanSakti Party (LJP) with three of his loyalist MPs including his own brother Ram Chandra Paswan and fought subsequent elections with Congress and then with RJD. We all know his current status; he lost his election in Hazipur where he once won by a record margin (entered into Guinness Book of Records) and his party didn’t manage to win a single Lok Sabha seat in 2009. He changed camps many times. Ditto may become the story with JD(U) and its star CM Nitish Kumar. He should not forget that the electorate never forgets the past and the story of caste and religion is behind. The people of Bihar also want development which he delivered but it was not done in isolation. No wonder, he may face the same fate as his counterpart, R V Paswan faced after 2000. History repeats itself!

NaMo, an acronym for Narendra Modi will elevate further and the time will say whether India’s electorate will vote him to Race Course Road in Delhi or he will confine himself to newly created spacious North Block in Ahmedabad at the project cost of Rs. 150 Cr. Let there be euphoria for development.

Among all developments, Congress is smiling and someone rightly said that Congress have dug the well for themselves so far but other parties including BJP are falling into it due to lack of decisive union. And we all know where the country headed in last 10 years bringing GDP growth from 9% to less than 5% under UPA leadership. Now the party (in fact the Italian converted Indian Madam) is in rush to pass Food Security Bill by bringing an ordinance as it is the only chance to secure votes no matter what the impact would be on Indian Treasury (approx Rs. 2 lakh crore worth of additional borrowing). 

BJP on other hand should stand united and there should not be a single instance of blackmailing as done by its old patriarch L K Advani. Hope he retires soon. Sometime, we don’t require the old wisdom as they become liability.

We all are watching; Indian Electorate is watching. We are silent now but may not be in future. Let us vote for the best of India. 

Incredible India! Let us vote!

Would the new Banking Licenses solve the high obsession with Gold and Land?

Where the unique demographic dynamics in India come as praise for consumer driven India, the absence of financial access to a larger population puts its viability on a question mark. Though the government and RBI have been continuously putting efforts to bring the rural disconnect under the main stream, the gap is still very wide.

In the absence of financial access, the rural populations have no choice but lure for Gold and Land which come handy in the time of distress. Though the government complains of high gold import as one of the main reasons of inflated Current Account Deficit in recent times, they have not provided the solutions to bridge the gap; instead they imposed high custom duty on gold which they hope will suppress the demand for gold. In my view, the demand may diminish temporarily; however, in the long run, these factors would be ignored. In rural areas, people buy gold for protecting themselves against the inflation and a hedge against the local economic downturns. Similar is the case with Land which is finding obsession with many people, thanks to increasing wings of industry and their focus in rural India. Also, as the daily wage earners don’t find any wage opportunities beyond 45, they find the piece of land as the only asset which can come handy in all circumstances.

So, should India sit and watch the apathy? The recent talks of new bank licenses for few serious private players have been on the roof provided what business plans they submit to RBI. Few known players whom the market have been boasting as serious contenders for bank licenses may find themselves at advantage as they would work under the full bank parameters. But the question arises whether the mere new banking licenses with a promise to spread their wings in rural areas are going to help in bridging the wide rural gap. It may or may not; at least the history says no. In the last banking licenses distribution where Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and others came into existence, they created niche in all activities other than rural banking.

So, is there any ready institution which is already connected to a wider rural population? Yes, to a certain extent, the recent and newly mushroomed Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) have tried reaching and connecting to the ground but failed to make their footprints as the industry got commercialized. While a lot of names have been flourishing in the street, one established organization where every Indian have the faith and transacted at least once in their life time and will have the connect in future too is India Post, famously known as Post Office or Daak Ghar. With a mammoth distribution network i.e. 155,500 offices, a majority of them in rural and semi-urban areas, India Post should be an obvious choice which everyone is ignoring. So far, India Post has been providing para-banking services like accepting time and demand deposits, saving accounts and other financial services. So, virtually, it operates as a bank except granting loans.

RBI must ponder over the obvious choice of making India Post as India Post Bank apart from other names. India will not give up their obsession of Land and Gold unless the financial access and simple financial products reach to the rural India. Also the time will say how much contribution the Direct Cash Transfer (DCT) and National Food Security Bill (NFSB) will make. Will they act as political stunts to attract votes given the general election is due in 2014.

Long Live India!

SEBI plays ‘HOLI’; introduces color labels for Mutual Funds

If you ask a retail investor if he has made money in the last 5 years despite the broader indices hovering in the range of 19,000 to 20,000, the answer would be no and in fact they would swear not to touch the capital market again. So, the question arises, “Have the Mutual Funds lost the charm” or “Have they been mis-sold which investors have realized and vowed to give a pass”? Probably these questions must be the pondering in the mind of SEBI, India’s Capital Market Regulator while zeroing in a way to make Mutual Fund a simpler investment product. And they played ‘HOLI’ by assigning Color Labels to different categories of Mutual Funds to define the level of risks – High, Medium or Low. But the product labeling comes with a disclaimer “Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them” for investors who are still not able to decide the fund based on their objectives and investment risks. Since ‘Red’ invites a bad rapport and somehow gives a negative signal, SEBI played safe by assigning a Brown Color for high risk products so that investors should not disown those products at all. So, they assigned colors – Brown, Yellow and Green for High Risk, Medium Risk and Low Risk products respectively.

So, the funds would be labeled based on the parameters as given below:

1)      Nature of Scheme such as to create wealth or provide regular income in an indicative time horizon (short, medium or long term)

2)      A brief about the investment objective i.e. the product aims to invest in equity or equity related securities of, say, top 200 companies by Market Capitalization.

3)      It will also label the level of risk by assigning the respective color box along with the narration of risk i.e. High, Low or Medium

The SEBI also mandated that these labeling should also be disclosed in front pages of all related documents like Common Application Form and NFO Forms, Scheme Information Documents (SIDs) and Key Information Memorandum (KIM) and in all kind of advertisements wherever displayed be it print, tv or online.

The ruling would be applicable with effect from July 01, 2013 to all existing schemes and all future schemes to be launched. Fund Houses may choose to follow the provisions before the effective date.

Will it help first time investors?

If a grocery buyer goes to the market to buy an edible product, he selects the product based on the green veg label or red non-veg label based on his requirement. However, he may not be able to understand its constituents if he is not literate. Ditto may be the case with retail investors with these MF labels; they may end up buying the mutual fund depending upon his risk appetite but the product may not be really suitable for them. So, they must seek help from the Financial Advisor who will help them in selecting the right product.

So, will the advisor get away even if he has recommended a wrong product? It does not seem easy in the current given scenario. Recently AMFI introduced an Employee Unique Identification Number (EUIN) where the advisor needs to mention this unique id in the application form and would be answerable for the logic of investment irrespective of wherever he moves as the code remains unique to him/her only.

Moreover, it is also suggested that investors must undergo risk profiling taking into account of their income, age, assets, liabilities and other goals and then reach on their risk appetite. Apart from the performance, portfolio philosophy and fund management style, one should also look into costs which are measured by expense ratio and exit loads.

What turns off?

Though SEBI tried keeping three simple colors – Brown, Yellow and Green, it failed to answer for the vast product varieties within the same categories.

Exempli Gratia - Within equity category, there are many sub categories like Large Cap, Small Cap or Thematic. Though they all have equity as common constituents, the constituents differ in their inherent risk which may deviate very high. A pure FMCG fund and a Pure Diversified Equity Fund would be labeled as Brown Box with High Risk; however, both have separate set of risks defined internally.

Also AMFI must market the new labeling actively and position it in a way that investors don’t end up in same hassles of selecting the wrong Mutual Fund which does not align with the investment objective and horizon.

Laudable ground work; confidence still shaken

Though it is a laudable effort by SEBI to educate investors and help them take an informed decision, the time will say whether it really helps to bring back the lost charm in Mutual Funds. Or will the product labels lose its spark despite a colorful mix? Despite all these measures, it is very important to instill the confidence wobbled in recent past which is leading to continuous outflows of retail money from the Mutual Fund industry. Constructive Investors’ Education is the mother of all steps. Hope the SEBI’s new ‘HOLI’ colors make a colorful impact in investors’ life. Happy Holi!

Happy Investing!