Would the new Banking Licenses solve the high obsession with Gold and Land?

Where the unique demographic dynamics in India come as praise for consumer driven India, the absence of financial access to a larger population puts its viability on a question mark. Though the government and RBI have been continuously putting efforts to bring the rural disconnect under the main stream, the gap is still very wide.

In the absence of financial access, the rural populations have no choice but lure for Gold and Land which come handy in the time of distress. Though the government complains of high gold import as one of the main reasons of inflated Current Account Deficit in recent times, they have not provided the solutions to bridge the gap; instead they imposed high custom duty on gold which they hope will suppress the demand for gold. In my view, the demand may diminish temporarily; however, in the long run, these factors would be ignored. In rural areas, people buy gold for protecting themselves against the inflation and a hedge against the local economic downturns. Similar is the case with Land which is finding obsession with many people, thanks to increasing wings of industry and their focus in rural India. Also, as the daily wage earners don’t find any wage opportunities beyond 45, they find the piece of land as the only asset which can come handy in all circumstances.

So, should India sit and watch the apathy? The recent talks of new bank licenses for few serious private players have been on the roof provided what business plans they submit to RBI. Few known players whom the market have been boasting as serious contenders for bank licenses may find themselves at advantage as they would work under the full bank parameters. But the question arises whether the mere new banking licenses with a promise to spread their wings in rural areas are going to help in bridging the wide rural gap. It may or may not; at least the history says no. In the last banking licenses distribution where Yes Bank, Kotak Bank and others came into existence, they created niche in all activities other than rural banking.

So, is there any ready institution which is already connected to a wider rural population? Yes, to a certain extent, the recent and newly mushroomed Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) have tried reaching and connecting to the ground but failed to make their footprints as the industry got commercialized. While a lot of names have been flourishing in the street, one established organization where every Indian have the faith and transacted at least once in their life time and will have the connect in future too is India Post, famously known as Post Office or Daak Ghar. With a mammoth distribution network i.e. 155,500 offices, a majority of them in rural and semi-urban areas, India Post should be an obvious choice which everyone is ignoring. So far, India Post has been providing para-banking services like accepting time and demand deposits, saving accounts and other financial services. So, virtually, it operates as a bank except granting loans.

RBI must ponder over the obvious choice of making India Post as India Post Bank apart from other names. India will not give up their obsession of Land and Gold unless the financial access and simple financial products reach to the rural India. Also the time will say how much contribution the Direct Cash Transfer (DCT) and National Food Security Bill (NFSB) will make. Will they act as political stunts to attract votes given the general election is due in 2014.

Long Live India!

The glitter of Gold – its unprecedented hike

Old is Gold – the Gold shines more than its spark. In the current global financial breakdown, Gold emerged as the safest asset and its price headed northwards reaching a record $ 1,431.25 an ounce on Dec 07, 2010, the longest Bull Run in at least 90 years. What led to the unprecedented hike in its prices? India and China hoard a major portion of gold outputs in the world.

In the 19^th century, the Gold Standard took place and lasted until the First World War. It was partially reestablished during the interwar period. The Great Depression of the 1930s brought the gold standard to a final end.

In that era, the world subscribed to the Gold Standard which implied specific rules for the system of international payments. International payments lead to gold transfers between countries. Banque De France explains in its Focus (authored by Gong Cheng, Laurent Ferrara, Yannick K and Pascal T)

When a country runs a balance of payments deficit (surplus), it has to make (receive) a payment in gold. Domestic gold holdings decrease (increase) and domestic money supply contracts (expands). Domestic money supply is thus determined by the balance of payments. This provides an adjustment mechanism to external imbalances. Suppose for instance that a country runs a trade deficit. This leads to a decrease in gold holdings and a monetary contraction. This contraction generates a decrease in domestic prices. With lower relative prices, the country becomes more competitive and its current account is brought back to balance. This adjustment mechanism was described by David Hume in his famous 1752 essay.

The more can be read here…

However, the Gold Standard met its ending with the major economies moving away and after the Second World War, the Bretton Woods system replaced the gold standard. Instead of a gold parity, countries announced a fixed but adjustable parity to the dollar, which in turn was initially fully convertible into gold.

While there were many advantages but it got several drawbacks, which would probably turn out to be very dangerous and a source of instability for the world economy.

What led to Gold roaring a high of $ 1,431.25?

No doubt the financial crisis prompted investors in lapping up gold in big denominations; the back end analysis shows that the assets soared of Gold ETFs accumulating the major portion of world gold output. Globally, the 10 biggest such funds now hold a combined 2,113 metric tons of gold, more than the official reserves accumulated by every country in the world save four: the U.S., Germany, Italy and France. India and China hoard of major portion of gold outputs. Recently, the Central Bank of India, RBI bought a major portion of gold which also helped in showing investors’ interest in gold.

The story goes as below:

James Burton, the then Chief Executive Officer of California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALIPERS) didn’t invest a penny in Gold of the total assets of $ 142.8 billion managed in 2002. The quiet obvious reason – the yellow metal had been in a bear market for two decades.

Christopher Thompson, the Chairman, World Gold Council convinced him to help in allowing investors to buy a previous metal they had shunned for generation. The key was dividing bars of gold into securities tradable on the New York Stock Exchange. And thus, the SPDR Gold Trust got its way and found the cheapest way of holding gold which now holds around 1,299 metric tons of gold valued at $ 57 billion, more than Swiss central bank. Their popularity (number of other Gold ETFs) helped driving unprecedented gains for the precious metal which can go even higher, as per analysts.

Read more on the parabolic rise of Gold.

Should we continue subscribing to it?

Gold’s worth is determined by fears of inflation or financial collapse. Unlike other eatable assets which are determined based on economic factors, gold’s true value is hard to judge for retail investors. In India, the demand will be factored by its sparkle coupled with the ETF demand.

Happy Reading!

Amar Ranu