Mutual fund trigger: Should you activate it?

Prasoon was on cloud nine when he saw NAV of his MF scheme; it was doubled. But his joy didn't last long as the market plunged...

Mutual fund trigger: Should you activate it?

Presentation on Mutual Fund

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Presentation on Mutual Fund

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Home Loan war is on!

The home loan war just seems to be getting intensive with major domestic lenders such as SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and others jumping into the bandwagon. The situation reminds a similar event seen in 2003 when foreign banks lined up to provide home loan at 6 per cent for first 2 to 3 years followed by floating rates unlike 7 to 8 per cent provided by their private and PSU counterparts. ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank took the fight further with the announcement of new rates so called ‘teaser rates’. Kotak Mahindra Bank has announced the special offer of 8.49 per cent for 30 months for all loan categories followed by the interest rate linked to retail prime linked rate in subsequent years. Similarly, ICICI Bank offers home loan at 8.25per cent for first two years followed by rates linked to in house built Floating Reference Rate (FRR) in subsequent years. Earlier this year, State Bank of India (SBI), the largest lender in India has launched ‘SBI Easy Loan’ offering home loans at 8 per cent for first year, 8.5 per cent for next two years followed by interest rates linked to State Bank Advance Rate (SBAR). HDFC, an another big lender in home loan segment which once described these moves as ‘teaser rates’ also announced a fixed cum floating scheme where it offers home loans at 8.25 per cent for first three years followed by interest rate linked to retail prime lending rates in subsequent years. However, this time they have given out different reasons such as ample liquidity, improved operational efficiency and good quality portfolios among few. So, the question arises what have made these lenders to jump into lucrative home loan segment and which rates are cheapest at the current conditions?

Lucrative home loan portfolio: is it attractive?

In the current economic scenario, the credit growth has almost dried, currently growing at little over 10 per cent down from 20-22 per cent a year earlier. The banks’ credit portfolio which comprised mainly of commercial loans witnessed slow commercial lending due to subdued market conditions and this led to a fall in net interest income, a difference between interest income over interest expenditure. This forced banks to concentrate to home loan borrowers to cover up the losses. Moreover, the real estate boom after a long two year lull added another spark among prospective buyers, thanks to combined home loan sops from lenders and discount offers from builders. Sops to Customers Banks have been offering sops in terms of low interest rates to new customers, just bypassing the existing customers. Initially some banks offered nil or reduced processing and documentation charges but they had scrapped it too. But the question arises, would the teaser rates jeopardize the cash flows of borrowers if the rates arise in future? The answer lies in the effectiveness of borrowers’ planning.

So effectively, the interest rates vary across all the banks at the current BPLR of respective banks which may vary in future as per the interest rate scenario in future.

Are these loans easily available to borrowers?

Simply no! Rupeetalk has interacted with some of the prospective home loan borrowers and many have complained that banks have put stringent norms before sanctioning these teaser loans to them. Some of the norms put are compulsory new home (no 2^nd home buying), compulsory guarantor, no refinancing, listed developers and increased processing time.

Sanjay Bhange, a prospective home loan borrower applied for a home loan with PNB in last Aug 2009 and got sanctioned his home loan in Nov 2009, that too, after repeated reminders along with a warning for complaint in consumer forum.

The logic is simple: have patience, check the listed developers with them, arrange the guarantor in advance and get all your documents ready before applying for these new home loan schemes.

What can the regulator do?

To some extent, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been successful in creating a positive competition among banks to offer low interest rates to borrowers as banks were initially reluctant to pass the monetary policy benefits given by RBI to them. Currently, the RBI in consultation with a special committee has been working to float a new benchmark rate applicable for all home loan borrowers (old and new). So, in near future, the home loan borrowers will have the ease to select the bank on the basis of services provided.

Is Social Impact/Value Creation Key to Microfinance’s Commercial Success?

All organizations create value in terms of economic, social and environmental components. The aim is value creation in terms of improved social surroundings. Microfinance institutions started their work on a social platform and needed to grow in order to deliver on its potential to reduce poverty. All microfinance programs target one thing in common: human development which is geared towards both the economic and social uplift of the people they cater for. It needs to scale up rapidly to reach out to poor in large numbers, it must realize its potential as a broad platform and social environment and it must tap the commercial financing to achieve the first two goals.

No doubt the grass is growing rapidly. Microfinance has been establishing new norms of behavior and cultivating a new level of trust. Like any other emerging industry, microfinance has grown by leap and bound in last few years and consolidations or tie-ups are inevitable among the top 200-300 microfinance institutions. Commercial banks have begun partnering microfinance institutions in an innovative way where they outsource a majority of lending activities with new and improved technology. In today’s environment, commercial financing represent the largest source of financing. If microfinance has to scale up significantly, it must look beyond its basic social building. In recent developments, microfinance institutions have also extended its lessons to other business opportunities for providing goods and services sought by poor.

So, the question arises: does it confine to just social impact or value creation? May be true or false; true in the sense that the basic concept of microfinance is to bridge the societal gap among poor human beings while false in the sense that it must look out of box to provide continuous cash-flows to needy persons for which it needs capital. Nevertheless, rapid technology growth has made the flow easier enabling maximum people to come in its vicinity.

Today, many microfinance institutions have started tapping commercial financing in order to spread their reach to billions instead of millions. Stakeholders who eye a pie of the microfinance institutions pre-capitalization require an assessment of social impacts, impacts on lifestyle and empowerment issues etc. They also analyze the society as a system and societal impacts, hoow deeply it is connected to the poor people where it has worked and how deeply it has gone in improving their livelihoods.

But the greedy game has followed its own course. There is no denying the fact that the high recovery rates (as high as 96 per cent) have forced commercial lenders to move towards microfinance institutions in order to tap the burgeoning growth in micro-lending. The MFI growth has been diluting the interests of microfinance. For the success of an MFI, rapid growth is not necessary rather how deeply it goes in assessing the societal impacts. The signal is clear: Reach to big numbers without making big bucks. But commercial greedy lenders will surely imbalance the strong pillars of pyramid i.e. microfinance. It may lose its relevance in the years to come. White claims that microfinance is a proven anti-poverty intervention thus seems ambiguous.

Too many players, too many regulations…

India remained coupled with the ongoing global financial crisis albeit the extent of losses was small as compared to other nations where a lot of financial institutions collapsed. India, the favorite destination for foreign money witnessed an unusual concept ‘flight to safety’ which resulted in sharp depreciation of mutual funds’ assets under managements (AUMs). Some mutual funds defaulted in payments too but the timely action by SEBI along with RBI helped Indian mutual fund industry in achieving new heights in terms of AUM. Currently, the whole industry AUM stands at Rs 7.63 lakh crore with 38 pillars supporting the base. Many players entered the bandwagon witnessing the high growth rate year after year. SEBI announced a series of regulations in 2009 to protect the interests of investors and improve the liquidity conditions. SEBI started the year prohibiting the declaration of indicative portfolios and indicative yields in Fixed Maturity Plans (FMPs) by mutual fund and its distributors. It also directed liquid fund schemes to purchase debt and money market securities with maturity of up to 91 days only effective from May 01, 2009. It also directed all mutual fund players to discontinue the nomenclature of ‘liquid plus schemes’ as it gives a wrong impression of added liquidity. The above regulations were directed by SEBI witnessing the serious liquid crisis in Oct 2008. Investment in Liquid Fund schemes with papers with maturity up to 91 days only has drastically reduced the returns from 7-8 per cent to 2.5-3 per cent compounded annually. This has resulted in mass redemption from liquid fund schemes.
In India, mutual fund investment is a push-strategy rather than a pull strategy as mutual fund distributors sell the products in lieu of high upfront commissions paid from investors’ investments. The SEBI announced the most awaited decision of the Indian mutual fund history where it directed the mutual fund houses to scrap all entry loads effective from Aug 01, 2009 and empowered the distributors and independent financial advisors (IFAs) to negotiate the commission for the services rendered. The retail investors welcomed the ruling while the distributors and IFAs opposed the decision as their earnings were at stake. Indian investors are not comfortable in writing another cheque for distributors. The above ruling created a stir in mutual fund inflows in equity category and the investment dropped drastically month after month. Some large mutual fund houses dig their profits to incentivize the distributors and IFAs while it became a question of survival for small mutual fund players. Fund houses reacted by increasing the exit loads which were also later regulated by SEBI putting a cap up to 1 per cent for all redemptions within one year and no exit loads beyond 1 year. To some extent, fund houses started pushing Portfolio Management Services (PMS) where it earns a fixed return in lieu of services rendered.
The cautious approach by SEBI in regulating Indian mutual fund industry and empowering the investors with improved investment conditions resulted in an increase in total assets under Indian Mutual Fund houses. However, the equity schemes continued to witness the lackluster in terms of investments.
Come to Nov 30, 2009. The retail investors have found another opportunity in terms of investments. Mutual funds units are now allowed to trade through registered brokers of recognized stock exchanges and NSE has already provided an online trading platform to all brokers. Thus, the need for enhancing the reach of mutual fund schemes to more towns and cities will be addressed through this channel. The existing secondary market set up in 1500 towns and cities will provide another opportunity to retail investors to invest in mutual funds. To some extent, the issue of holding multiple statements of accounts would be taken care and all the mutual fund units would be in dematerialized form.
But the question remains - are we ready to swallow too many regulations in such a short span of time? May be or may not be. SEBI could have been slow in introducing the exemption of entry loads in a phased manner so that it could give some time to IFAs to settle with their new business environments. As per ICRA Online report, the average maturity period for equity stands at 2-3 years much lower than its fundamental rule of 5-10 years. Equity has always been termed as a long term investment product but the recent ruling of allowing mutual fund units may result in increased churning of mutual fund investments. Moreover, the transaction charges as levied by brokers stands at 0.3-0.5 per cent for retail investors on either side trading, thus, making it 0.6-1 per cent on both side transactions. Apart from this, the brokers may charge an additional fee for recommending mutual fund scheme to investors. Thus, the whole concept of zero entry-load vanishes and moreover, the churning will also increase putting an extra onus in terms of increased fund management charges as portfolio turnover ratio will increase. Mutual fund houses will also benefit in terms of frequent exit loads being charged from investors.
No doubt, SEBI rulings will help retail investors with improved investment environment but it should also monitor the other anomalies as mentioned above. Investors must have some reasons to smile and become an informed and disciplined player.

Financial Mess in Cosmopolitan working Women

For quite a long time women had been depressed in India before being given the opportunity to lead in parallel to men in all walks of life. Exceptional to everyone’s expectations, they performed well and proved their worth in personal and professional life both. But the cosmopolitan life have made these women extravagant splurging without checking their limits. So, the usual money-manager tag being given to women seems to die away and the money management remains a history for them now.

Sameera, in mid 20s, well-educated has been working in Mumbai for quite a long time. By God’s grace, she managed to start earning handsomely in few years of work making her more independent and giving her own identity. And similar to this, her lifestyle also changed shifting from Nokia GSM to Blackberry, splurging more on shopping, restaurant foods et al with minimum thinking on Personal Finance. They have the notion in mind that their dream men would bring all the charm and comforts to their life.

Let us understand Sameera’s financial position and read her lifestyles since she has been earning. She currently holds a credit card where she has got a significant dues pending, thanks to her openhanded expenses. She is still unaware of the various nuisances and hidden charges on her credit cards which the credit card company adds every now and then. Her fault is : she didn’t read the fine prints of credit card and neglected the nuisances of overspending on credit card. She also has a medical insurance provided by her current employer which is also not sufficient in city like Mumbai where medical expense can unbalance your financial kitty. In the name of life insurance, she has got nothing much, means she is under-insured. This is not the new story with a cosmopolitan unmarried earning girl. The story does not end here with Sameera. Rita, Deepali, Anjana, Midul and others share the same story and are least interested in future financial requirements.

Here are some reasons why working women should have balanced financial positions and should decide about it little early without ending into a financial mess:

1. First of all, they should have enough life insurance in terms of Pure Protection schemes. Should any unfortunate things happen in future, their nominee would get the entire sum assured. It works well when the women are married and are burdened by home loan debts, kids’ education expenses and other major expenses. And if they take insurance early in their life, it will cost less to them and there are additional discounts being offered to them by insurers due to less prone to risks.
2. Women should take medical insurance policy at an early stage, when the insurance seeker is not suffering from any ailment. This is important because as one ages, there is likelihood of developing ailments which can be fatal too. Moreover, women are more prone to health care services due to their inherent conditions.
3. Disciplined investment always pays well in the long term. The working women should make systematic investments into various saving products at an early age so as to get a compounding effect on their returns.
4. Since for many women, their dream job might be a dream for fulfilling their cherished dreams, they should avoid splurging and must keep checks on their expenses. Incase they use credit cards more often, they must pay the bill in time else the interests on credit card dues can put them in debt trap.

Smart work, smart thinking, multi-environment adaptability and loyalty to the company are some of the flying colour words which define today’s women but when it comes to their own money management skills, they score very low and mess their financial conditions. They must follow a disciplined approach towards their personal savings and check their expenses.

Is the time ripe for Indians to invest globally? What are the most attractive options for Indians to build a more global portfolio?

The global financial markets saw a series of events in the last two years with the abruption of subprime crisis followed by fall of investment banking behemoth Lehman Brothers in US. The whole process disrupted the world financial markets including India too, thus, giving a silent killing to the concept of ‘Decoupling’. The central banks in mutual relationship with their central governments declared a series of relief programs/packages. The combined global measures along with increased consumer consumption improved the global sentiments and markets performed comparatively better in 2009 YTD. India emerged as the 2nd best performer with a return of 73 per cent – its third best domestic performance in a year in its history-- in YTD 2009 followed by Brazil, Thailand, Taiwan, China etc. Russia remained at the top slot with an overall return of 90-plus per cent in YTD 2009. Nevertheless, other developed markets such as Japan’s index, S&P 500 etc gave returns in the range of 20 per cent.

Table 1- Performance of MSCI Indices
Indices YTD 1 Yr
MSCI EM Asia 59.88% 92.20%
MSCI BRIC 76.02% 105.63%
MSCI Europe 26.53% 39.73%
MSCI The World Index 20.51% 24.30%
MSCI G7 Index 17.36% 19.33%

A look on table 1 depicts a very clear picture that emerging markets have outperformed the world index and Europe and G7 index by a huge margin. The world index has given return of 20.51 per cent in YTD 2009 as compared to MSCI BRIC which gave 76.02%in YTD 2009. In terms of valuations, India is trading at 15x PE FY2011, near to its historical average of 14.2x while China and Hongkong is trading at 17.3x and 14.5x FY 2011. US’s S&P 500 is trading at 14.5x PE while Russia and Korea is trading in single digits. So, in terms of valuations, India has reached a stage comparable to world markets but the opportunities are endless in India in terms of returns.
The developed markets are still to experience a handsome improvement in various economic parameters. The treasury rates are still quoting at their all time lows prompting the global investors to invest in emerging markets like India. So, logically at this point, the time is not ripe for Indians to invest in global markets as the domestic market provides a better opportunity in terms of valuations and earnings.
Let us understand the need of global portfolio: Investors, by and large, build global portfolio primarily because of diversification opportunities they offer. However, global funds are subject to currency risk and country risk. The retail investors in India are still not financially educated to build a global portfolio on their own- the reason being the small tick size and lack of known avenues. The investors are still inclined towards bank deposits and other traditional investment products. In India, mutual funds have travelled a long path in building AUMs, currently hovering at Rs 7.5 trillion crore where global dedicated funds’ share stands at Rs 7.5 k crore as on Sept 2009 despite being allowed an exposure limit of $ 7 billion for overseas investments by Indian mutual funds.

Table 2- Performance of Global Funds (India)
_____________________ 1 Yr 3 Yr
Frankling Asia Equity Fund 60.79% 9.82%
Tata Growing Eco Infra Fund 83.28% -
ICICI Pru Indo Asia Equity Fund 89.19% -
Fidelity International Opportunites 71.63% -
Principal Global Opportunities Fund 68.75% 4.69%

The table 2 depicts the performance of global mutual funds operating out of India. Most of the funds are dedicated to Asia and emerging economies. They have given returns in the range of 60.79% to 89.19% in one-year category, much lesser than the diversified fund category of around 100 plus per cent. Some of the funds invest in global assets directly while others invest in overseas mutual funds, also known as feeder funds such as DSP BR World Energy Fund, Franklin India International Fund etc. In the current market rally, the domestic diversified funds have performed better than the global funds and there have been no clear trend for performance in global funds. However, the mutual fund route seems to be right option to build a global portfolio rightly through India’s dedicated global funds and foreign-based funds. Investors need to take into account of the volatile currency risk and country risk. In the near term, dollar has reached to its 14 month low value against Rupee. So, the concept of dollar carry trade is widely practiced in the investment circles. Global investors take the PN (participatory notes) and PE (private equity) route to invest in India while Indians mainly high-worth investors follow the PE and buy-out route. Some of the well defined ways to diversify internationally and build global portfolios are given below:
1. Index investments- If investors hope are a return close to average market return; it is advisable to go for passive funds such as ETFs.
2. Invest in global funds with low expenses.
3. Go for offshore funds as they offer tax advantages over onshore funds on profit accumulated.
4. Avoid funds with frequent turnover i.e. with high turnover ratio.
5. One can also invest in international shares directly. During the economic downturn, some of well known stocks such as Citi, JP Morgan, AIG etc were trading at excellent valuations.

Home Loan – Should buyers go for it now?

Non-food credit grew 11.3 per cent – its lowest figure in the last 12 years, for the period ending on Oct 09, 2009. Home loan, a part of non-food credit did not report very healthy credit off-take too. Nevertheless, the festive offers made by different PSU banks along with reduced interest rates offered by private counterparts revived the home loan disbursals. Various banks offered the ‘8 per cent-first year offer’. This along with reduced property rates aroused the buyers’ appetite to buy homes.
While the market think tanks called these festive rates as teaser rates, similar to the rates offered in western countries which created asset bubble, the central government along with PSU banks offered these special rates for a limited period to revive the realty market on which many builders were dependent or on the verge of collapse.
Initially, in the first two quarters of FY 2010, home loan disbursals were on the track but following the increase in property prices by 10-30% in the last 6 months, consumers have started postponing the buying as they are apprehensive of a possible market correction.

Offerings by PSUs and Private banks
Almost all the PSU banks have come out with special home loan offer where the first year interest rate is pegged at 8 per cent followed by 8-9 per cent rates for next 4 years. Subsequently, the rates would be benchmarked against the said BPLR. They have also offered ‘nil’ processing charges during the festive period along with ‘nil’ prepayment penalty unlike in private banks where they still charge processing fees and prepayment penalties along with higher interest rates.
So, currently PSU banks offer better deals in terms of total incentives albeit they take higher processing time..

Fixed or Floating?
In the market scenario, it is better to blend the fixed with floating. Following the outlook in the 2nd quarter 2009-10, the RBI has indicated to unwind the expansionary monetary policies in near term; so, interest rates may go up in FY 2011. So, it is recommended for the current buyers to lock in the fixed rates to get the early benefits from a possible rise in interest rates.

Time to buy
Moreover, RBI has also asked the provisioning requirement for real estate loans which will also push the cost of the property as builders will pass the cost to consumers. But it won’t be easy to pass the additional cost to buyers as the property markets are already flooded with substantial supply while demand has not evolved. So, the buyers looking for a property should go for it.

Down-payment requirement
In the current calendar year, many banks have reduced the margin requirements for home loan borrowers from 25% to 15-20% of the total property prices. So, it is a further push and an incentive to home buyers.

What percentage of your net income you can have your EMI?
Generally banks offer loan with an EMI in the range of 35%-65% of total monthly income. It also depends upon the credit history of the individuals. So, one can expect an EMI at a moderate level of 50 per cent of total monthly salary.

What should customers do?
The improved economic conditions have already pushed the property rates by 10-30%; so it would be prudent to take the buying decision in the current period as regulatory caps would push up the prices further. Moreover, the festive rates are valid will Dec 31, 2009 after which the normal rates would apply and there won’t be any additional incentives available.

Searching the life

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Searching the life..

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RBI exits from expansionary policies

The domestic economy has started experiencing its feel-good factor with the encouraging numbers from all ends. However, the global economic outlook scripts a different picture. The abundance liquidity, inflationary pressures and week credit off-take forced the central bank to initiate some precautionary steps.

Keeping in mind to provide a balanced approach to our coupled economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its second-quarter review of monetary policy 2009-10 maintained its status-quo on its lending and borrowing rates by keeping repo and reverse-repo rates unchanged at 4.75 per cent and 3.25 per cent respectively. It has also kept the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the portion of deposits which the commercial banks need to keep with the RBI unchanged at 5 per cent. However, the bank has hiked the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR), the amount which the commercial banks need to maintain in the form of cash, government approved securities (G-Secs) and/or gold before providing credit to the borrowers, to 25 per cent from 24 per cent effective from Nov 07, 2009 which will suck up over Rs 30,000 crore from the system. The central bank also aims to reduce the surplus liquidity and fight the higher inflationary expectations, which have been building up following a deficit monsoon (22% deficit) causing an increase in prices of food articles and food products.

The RBI has also revised the inflation target from 5 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The inflation has increased from -0.12 per cent to 1.21 per cent within a span of six weeks, thus, reflecting a rise of more than 1 per cent. It has also kept the GDP target unchanged at 6 per cent with an upward bias.

The RBI has responded in a way so that its growth and inflationary targets are met well within their target limits as set and also bridge the fiscal gap by initiating the first phase of its exit from expansionary policy. It has ended the forex swap facility for banks and cut the export credit refinance facility to 15 per cent, the level seen in pre-crisis time from the current level of 50 per cent. It has also ended the special repurchase window for banks, mutual funds and NBFCs with immediate effect.

Following the announcements by RBI, the domestic markets have responded negatively. The barometer Sensex tanked 386 points on profit booking across all sectors except IT companies. The BSE realty index and metals were heavily battered slipping 6.24 per cent and 5.43 per cent respectively. On the debt front, the ten year G-Sec yield slipped from 7.41 per cent to 7.31 per cent, a gain of 0.1 per cent or 10 basis points.

Jounced…

Well everyone dreams a life…a life filled with colors, dreams, expectations, planning etc…Hmm planning? For what? For whom? With whom? Life must go in a direction acceptable to the world, a world to which you own some obligations. Human beings have got a wonderful quality of falling into thoughts, the thoughts on which great discoveries, inventions and other new happenings revolve around the world.

Distances and time have been dwarfed; everyone is looking to be famed for its brevity in all possible paths covered. India, a country of valued and rich culture, customs and its incredibleness have voyaged an inter-generational expedition. Once to be called as Golden Birds, India is fighting hard to retain its lost glory. Even though to some extent on the global front, India is known for its inimitability and equally counted as a forward player which others watch to replicate per se. In London and US airports when Indian executives take a ride on the taxi operated by Indians, the drivers feel proud as Indian companies have galloped some of the overseas giants to show the financial muscles, a message to be flashed in foreigners’ minds we have reached to you. Similarly, in row inter se Harbhajan and Symonds in India-Australia tour, a newspaper in UK quoted, “India showed its financial muscles”. When India threatened to cancel the ongoing tour due to inter-cultural arguments, ICC nudged with a fine of Rs 3.5 billion which BCCI happily replied that the cheque was ready”.

Coming on the individual front, everyone seems to improve, grow in a perpetual way in line with the current world’s demands. Some does it at other’s costs; some achieves at its own strength. In the current now-and-then, we have forgotten our own families, own people. Nuclear family has become a way of life where everyone is strained and stressed. People look for the fun and peace at other places and with others. Discos, regular psychiatrist visits, pubs, extra-marital affairs etc have become a way of life. People struggle for the magic Smile and hardly laugh out. Just ask yourself, when did you laugh last for yourself?

The granny knot of Husband-wife’s relation works as strong as Himalaya. In the current stressed world where people are fighting for the sake of its existence, in some families they live with each other with a compromise which would be followed till its divide. The movie “Life in a metro” clearly depicted the true picture of the world where relations move beyond its existence and take a new shape. Should we continue with the current theme or it would become a trend of the life? Endless questions and eternal explanations have let the relations to reach at the point of extremity. We are fighting over trivial things which need to be looked into. The world needs to be relooked into.

Why do markets go up/down?

Sellers outnumber buyers, says a simple market theory. But the game of economics in the current globalised world which keeps the countries coupled with each other makes the markets gyrate either in upward or downward direction. We often read the financial news “The financial markets reacted to the report with a sharp fall…”. But in reality, do the markets react to the news in this way? Our traditional economic theory says that markets are mostly in equilibrium, reflecting an overall balance of economic forces. Markets’ direction change when these forces change i.e. when any good news about a company increased demand for its stock, making its price go up.

But the theory of simple buying and selling which determines the price discovery seems to fail with the current crisis triggered by the bursting of a financial bubble in the US mortgage markets in 2007 that had grown to gruesome proportions, thanks to lax regulations and complex financial instruments that hid risks. The issue on the top was the issue of ‘moral hazard’. Brokers were incentivized to generate borrowers and investment banks took on these risky loans and lumped them together into “Collateralized Debt Obligations”. And a single failure at one of the nodes of a tree made it to collapse. The striking feature of the crisis is that the situation appeared to be driven by ‘emotion’. The word ‘fear’, not an equilibrium concept, appeared in almost all newspapers. “Too big to fail” syndrome tasted dust with the fall of Lehman Brothers, an investment bank giant. Traditional economic models don’t capture these dynamics. Market dynamics can be bewilderingly complicated, with thousands or even millions of participants – ranging from banks and mutual funds to individual punters – all interacting with one another.

The system of leverage has created a surprised situation in the market. Lots of leverage begins to pose a threat of failures cascading through the market and it bursts out if it crosses a certain threshold. A single failure sends ripples of trouble through the entire market, making it to nosedive.

Moreover, many economic parameters have become so relevant in the financial markets that even a marginal negative movement in these numbers can let markets move in uneven directions. Some of the dominating factors are Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Libor-Dollar movement, GDP growth rate, fiscal deficits, government borrowings, Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) given by OECD, MSCI Index et al. Since the financial crisis in 2007, these numbers performed miserably, before some ‘green shoots’ were visible at the end of last quarter of 2008-09, thanks to series of stimulus plans, bail outs, low interest rates, tax sops etc by central banks across the world. The emotions played stronger, emerged as the major tool in deciding the market movements.

The natural reaction to a crisis is to update and upscale regulation and supervision. The markets unwillingly move in either direction by millions of investors; those with stronger steam make it move in their direction, thus, disproving the basic dynamics of demand and supply. To a large extent, it is the man made movement. The game goes simple, “there is no place for snoozers”. The theory of money making goes on with either party making losses or gains. The only unidirectional beneficiaries in this game are the bourses which just smile, make money and see these punters betting to each other.

Life in a Wheel

Life in a Wheel

Have you ever imagined the importance of a wheel?

The world began approaching towards its current civilizations on ‘Sumerian’ wheels,

From rollers or logs, the first wheel-like devices to the evolution of solid wheels,

It sets its own path irrespective of impediments,

It finds its own journey, if, shown a target,

When attached with a vehicle, it covers a distance,

When walked across its diameter, you reach the same point,

It depicts the life cycle traversing in phases.

Life divulges within an endless series of time cycles,

Human life cycle which repeats itself over again and again,

It never ends its journey and discerns new evolutions and new visions.

The wheels of life are being illustrated as wheels within wheels.

The wheel is whirling and you can’t inhibit.