FII Inflows in India vs QE-II – Is there any relation?

Very often, we say that the FII inflows in India lead to domestic indices’ upward movement. To a large extent, it is true. Post the economic bleak in 2008, the advanced nations cut their interest rates to spur the economy which has almost dried. Developed nations like US announced a series of quantitative easing and credit easing programs in a bid to aid faster recovery and fight deflation. It is widely believed in academia that QE-I and QE-II leads to increasing capital flows into the emerging market economies (EMEs). This also holds true for India as we largely believed that QE-II led to large FIIs inflows in India.

However, Anand Shankar, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in his paper “QE-II and FII inflows into India – Is there a Connection?” says that FII inflows have fallen after the November 03, 2010 announcement of QE-II by Fed which is very contradictory to popular belief of increased inflows.

The first phase of longer term asset purchase in the US was terminated on Mar 31, 2010, with about $1.75 trillion worth of asset purchase by the Fed between Nov 2008 and Mar 2010.  However, this injection seemed insufficient to aid faster recovery and fight deflation and control unemployment rate. On Nov 03, 2010, the US’s Fed announced another series of quantitative easing, widely known as QE-II worth $ 600 billion over an eight month period along with reinvestment of principal payments from agency debt and mortgage backed securities to the tune of $ 250 billion - $ 300 billion.

Anand Shankar further says,

“One would have expected the FII inflows to increase significantly after November 3, 2010 announcement of additional purchase of treasury securities. However, results suggest that FII flows have indeed fallen in the period after November 3, 2010. One explanation is that since the markets had already anticipated and factored in the effect of QE in their behavior, they were not surprised by the announcement of QE-II on November 3, 2010.”

The paper says that there have been other factors which led to movement of FII inflows in India in that period. The paper results suggest,

“Post the announcement of QE-2, FII inflows have fallen significantly. The fall in FII inflows post November 3, 2010 has been explained via factors negatively affecting stock market returns in India using global and domestic factors which include sovereign debt problems in the Euro-area, political tensions between North and South Korea and in the MENA region, high inflation in India and policy rate hikes by Reserve Bank of India.”

This finding has been explained using expectation factoring behavior of market participants and developments in India and abroad.

A nice analysis by Anand Shankar; thanks to RBI.

Mutual Funds’ Net Assets dwindled in June; Equity saw a marginal inflow

After seeing few positives in recent months, Equity saw a good dip in net inflow in the month of June. The net inflows in Equity Mutual Funds dwindled to Rs. 20 crore in June 2011 from Rs. 1,546 crore in May 2011. This is the massive fall in inflows in Equity in recent months.

The uncertain domestic equity market coupled with the bleak global factors predominantly emanating from Euro region also caused Indian investors to redeem their investments out of Equity Mutual Funds and allocate to fixed income products. The domestic equity market remained in bear mood in most of trading days in June before given a boost by FIIs in the last week; thus, letting the broader indices Sensex and Nifty 50 to end in positive.

In addition, the overall Mutual Fund assets fell to Rs. 673,176 crore in June 2011 from Rs. 731,448 crore in May 2011, a fall of Rs. 58,272 crore or 7.97 per cent. Also, the industry saw a total outflow of Rs. 62,442 crore which was mainly caused by outflows in short term debt category – Liquid Funds and Ultra Short Term Funds. In total, these two categories had an outflow of Rs. 62,378 crore. Other categories which saw a net outflow are Gilt (Rs. 88 crore), ELSS (Rs. 80 crore), FOF Investing Overseas (Rs. 42 crore) and Other ETFs (Rs. 210 Crore). Only Balanced Fund, Equity Fund and Gold ETF categories saw a net inflow of Rs. 84 crore, Rs. 20 crore and Rs. 252 crore respectively.

Banks continue to reduce their investments in Mutual Funds; as on June 17, 2011, the net investments stand at Rs. 84,034 crore from over Rs. 1 lakh crore on May 20, 2011. Recently, the RBI has instructed all banks to cap their investments in Mutual Funds up to 10 per cent of their net worth as on Mar 31, 2011. Earlier, the deadline had been as on Oct 2011 which has been extended by another six months. It is being expected that investments worth Rs. 50,000-55,000 crore would flow out of the system in next six months.

Net Outflows in June 2011

The outflows continued in June 2011; barring categories like Equity, Balanced and Gold ETFs, all other categories saw a net outflow. The equity category saw a net inflow of Rs. 20 crore on standalone basis; however, if we consolidate Equity with Balances and ELSS, there has been a net outflow in totality.

On net asset basis, the MF industry AUM also came down to Rs. 673,176 crore, a fall of 7.97 per cent. The other categories which saw a major fall in assets are Liquid/Money Market (-22.36 per cent), Other ETFs (-8.25 per cent), FOF Investing Overseas (-6.2 per cent), Income (-5.49 per cent), Balanced (-4.45 per cent) and others.

Gold ETF continues to see inflow and increase in AUM too. In last 26 months, it did not see any outflow except at one occasion when it saw a marginal outflow of Rs. 6 crore. In totality, it saw a total inflow of Rs. 4,000 crore in last 26 months. In June 2011, it saw a total inflow of Rs. 252 crore; also its net assets increased to Rs. 5,568 crore in June 2011 from Rs. 5,463 crore in May 2011. 

FMPs still rule the inflows

We continue seeing new FMPs in the street. A total of 74 FMPs has been launched collecting a total AUM of Rs. 7,747 crore. The new fund house Union KBC Mutual Fund launched its maiden Equity Fund, Union KBC Equity Fund which collected a total AUM of Rs. 167 crore. It also launched a liquid fund, Union KBC Liquid Fund.

Happy Reading!

- Amar Ranu

FIIs’ rave party in India; Economic indicators are at loggerheads

From bleak to bright – the markets suddenly turned positive ending its successive falls, thanks to strong FIIs inflows and short covering. In a swift movement, the bellwether Sensex added over 1300 points in a span of nine working days ending all the bearish sentiments which had been prevalent across the punters. The favorable factors emanating were from Greece whose parliament approved stark austerity measures; thus, paved the way for international financial aid and it would bail out the country. In India, FIIs joined in the rave party after a brief lull with a total inflow of Rs. 5,084 crore in the last week of June. Markets across the world moved up.

What the other indicators say?

While the equity moved up on favorable news emanating from European sub-region, the manufacturing has slackened across the world. In the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by HSBC and Markit Economics, the figures dropped across the countries. As per the latest figures, the manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe, thus, sending the dilemma to all central bankers whether to increase the interest rates to combat inflation despite high prices. While China’s factory index fell to its lowest level since Feb 2009, Europe’s index dropped to 18-month low. Across Europe i.e. Italy, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Germany and others reported contraction. The UK also reported a fall in PMI in June. In India too, manufacturing growth loses steam in June 2011. The PMI drops two per cent to 55.3 per cent in June, its lowest level since Sept 2010. The PMI is considered a good indicator of manufacturing activity across the world, but in India, the large contribution from the unorganized sector yields a low correlation with industrial growth.

Why PMIs are falling?

In the state of higher interest rates, central banks are tightening the interest rates, thus, hurting the economic growth. The average cost of borrowing has increased which are hurting the investment. In India, the investment growth in the latest GDP growth has grown flat. Gross fixed capital formation for Q4FY11 stood at 0.4 per cent compared to 7.8 per cent and 8.6 per cent in Q3FY11 and FY 2011 respectively.

Market punters are blaming the global economic scenario for the current headwinds. But the tailwinds still exist. We expect that the domestic companies’ performances in the first quarter of FY 12 would also decide the movement of markets as the internal consumption growth story remains intact. The natural historical corrections are also certain and the future looks promising. So, let us be hopeful.

Happy Investing!

-          Amar Ranu